🎯 What to Think about the Rookie RBs

The topic of the week has been on the poor performance of the rookie RBs and as shown by Tuesday’s poll, the concern is real for those drafted in the early and mid rounds. I have seen a lot of opinions on this subject but I think it would be helpful context to understand how recent first round RBs have performed in their first two games.

From 2020 through last year, five RBs were drafted in the first round: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Here is how they performed in their first two games vs total season.

Bijan Robinson - RB5 and 41.5 PPR through two weeks, finished RB12
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB26 and 20.6 PPR through two weeks, finished RB8
Najee Harris - RB22 and 25 PPR through two weeks, finished RB3
Travis Etienne Jr. - RB35 and 16.8 PPR through two weeks, finished RB17 (sophomore year after rookie injury)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB11 and 32.8 PPR through two weeks, finished RB22

And for comparison, Ashton Jeanty is RB27 with 19.4 PPR and Omarion Hampton is RB45 with 11.6 PPR. These are both on the tail end of poor resultsthrough two weeks, but when you consider the underlying usage, I don’t think Gibbs and Najee comps are unrealistic. Gibbs played alongside David Montgomery but got there on efficiency. Najee quickly became the primary back and got there on volume.

I think these past results can give us hope for the future, but when diving into the current situations, I do have concerns. I still believe Jeanty was an elite prospect but the offense is doing him no favors as seen by him ranking last among RBs for yards before contact. Either that needs to change or he’ll need to steal away the passing game role to meet his lofty pre-season expectations. As for Hampton, I am not as confident in the talent and if he continues to struggle, the playoff-contending Chargers can simply rely more on dependable Najee Harris.

As for the other RBs, we always needed to have more reasonable expectations for 2nd and 3rd round RBs. I will mention to those who selected Judkins below, keep in mind there is still a substantial chance he ends up with a suspension this year and overall offensive downgrade when Flacco is benched.

📺️ TNF Game Preview

8:15pm ET on Amazon Prime: MIA @ BUF (BUF -12, O/U 49.5)

Start with confidence
Miami - De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
Buffalo - Josh Allen, James Cook, BUF DST, K Matt Prater

Start them if you need to
Miami - Jaylen Waddle
Buffalo - Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid

Sit them if you can
Miami - Tua Tagovailoa, MIA DST, K Riley Patterson
Buffalo - Joshua Palmer

My favorite bet:
Shortest FG Made: OVER 26.5 yards
The Bills only attempted two FGs last year of less than 26.5 yards given their aggressive tendencies. And with the Dolphins being 12 point underdogs, they will likely be trailing and have to play aggressive when inside the 10-yard line. Combine those two and I think it’s a strong bet that the shortest FG won’t be under 26.5 yards.

📊 Poll of the Day

Tuesday’s poll: Which of these rookie RBs is most likely to meet their pre-season expectations?

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