Black Monday in the NFL

📝 News & Notes

The Browns, Raiders, Cardinals, and Falcons fire their head coaches, joining the Titans and Giants currently in the market for a new HC

The following are reported targets with head coach interviews: Chiefs OC Matt Nagy, Broncos DC Vance Joseph, Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo, Colts DC Lou Anarumo, Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver, ex-Browns HC Kevin Stefanski, and ex-Falcons HC Raheem Morris.

Not news but should be news, the Bucs did not fire Todd Bowles. They let Dave Canales go to Carolina (playoffs), they let Liam Coen go to Jacksonville (playoffs), and now they are stuck with a coach who punts on 4th and 1 in opposing territory, kicks FGs in the 4th quarter on 4th and 5 to go from up 9 to up 12, and finished the season 2-7.

💰️ FFPC Playoff Contest

I love drafting but playoff fantasy football competitions comes rather close to being my favorite time of year. It makes the playoffs that much more enjoyable as we get a multi-week sweat but above all, we’re getting it in good with major edge against people who are just picking the best players.

When thinking about my entries, I start by building out my player pool. That combines ranking the teams into tiers and then getting a sense for within each team, who will be chalk, who will be strong plays but not chalk, and who are the contrarian pieces worth considering. Below are my five tiers and the players I’m thinking fall into each category. You’ll notice there are some players on each team who will be played but I did not include (i.e., you could play Blake Corum on the Rams) but if I didn’t include them, it means I don’t think they should be considered for this contest.

In general, you’ll want a lineup that has a healthy balance of chalk, strong plays, and perhaps one or two contrarian pieces. Too much chalk and it’ll be very difficult to pull away from the pack. Too many contrarian plays and you’re giving up too many projectible points. The key is finding leverage off the chalk that has a reasonable likelihood of ourperforming the popular pick from that team.

Tier 1
Los Angeles Rams
Chalk: Puka Nacua
Strong plays: Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams
Contrarian: Kyren Williams

Seattle Seahawks
Chalk: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Contrarian: Sam Darnold, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, AJ Barner

Denver Broncos
Chalk: no clear chalk
Strong plays: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, RJ Harvey
Contrarian: none

Tier 2

New England Patriots
Chalk: Drake Maye
Strong plays: Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry
Contrarian: none

Philadelphia Eagles
Chalk: Saquon Barkley
Strong plays: Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert
Contrarian: DeVonta Smith

Tier 3

Houston Texans
Chalk: Nico Collins
Strong plays: Dalton Schultz
Contrarian: CJ Stroud, Woody Marks, Jayden Higgins

Buffalo Bills
Chalk: Josh Allen
Strong plays: James Cook, Dalton Kincaid
Contrarian: Khalil Shakir

Jacksonville Jaguars
Chalk: no clear chalk
Strong plays: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jakobi Meyers
Contrarian: Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Brenton Strange

Tier 4

Chicago Bears

Chalk: no clear chalk
Strong plays: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland
Contrarian: DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Kyle Monangai

Green Bay Packers

Chalk: Josh Jacobs
Strong plays: Jordan Love, Christian Watson
Contrarian: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave

San Francisco 49ers
Chalk: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
Strong plays: Brock Purdy
Contrarian: Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall

Los Angeles Chargers

Chalk: FADE
Strong plays: Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II
Contrarian: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston

Pittsburgh Steelers

Chalk: FADE
Strong plays: DK Metcalf
Contrarian: Kenneth Gainwell, Jaylen Warren

Tier 5

Carolina Panthers

Chalk: FADE
Strong plays: Tetairoa McMillan
Contrarian: Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard

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