📝 News & Notes

Over the past few days, rumors have been swirling around a Najee Harris fireworks accident with speculation he may have lost an eye. Yesterday, we got some concrete information for the first time.

• Around 6pm ET, the Mercury News reports that ‘Najee Harris injured in Fourth of July fireworks explosion’ [Mercury News]

• Shortly after, we receive a statement from Harris’ agent stating he “sustained a superficial eye injury during the incident, but is fully expected to be ready for the NFL season.” [@AdamSchefter]

That’s all we now know for now. I see most people brushing it off and returning ranks / opinions for Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton to what they were before the accident but I have a slightly different take.

The rumors stemmed from a variety of sources but mostly centered around a major injury to an eye. Turns out there was truth in that. So now we’re left with evaluating the agent’s statement.

1) The agent has an incentive to downplay any injury or the impact of an injury. Both potentially due to contract implications or simply supporting his client. Just because he is expected to be ready for the NFL season doesn’t mean the injury won’t impact his ability.

2) ‘Expected to be ready for the NFL season’ isn’t any form of guarantee but even if we accept it to be true, it’s still the ‘NFL season’ and not training camp or preseason. The biggest challenge for rookies battling veterans is often getting the reps and playing time. If Najee has to sit out for the next month or two, those are valuable reps Hampton is getting, possibly accelerating his path to taking over that backfield.

And one final piece of speculation is this tweet from Jeff Mueller noting that the additional visit to Stanford (after the ER) could hint towards something more complex or severe.

This could all be a nothingburger but I think it’d be incorrect to return out evaluations of Harris and Hampton to what they were before the accident. Personally, I’m giving a slight boost to Hampton and slight neg to Harris.

🔁 What I Listened To This Week

• Rankings Changes and News Reactions w/ Levitan & Silva [ETR]

• ETE Projections: AFC West with Ben Gretch [Establish the Edge]

• 5 Must Draft Players According to Evan Silva [Underdog Show]

• 2025 Fantasy QB Rankings [PFF Fantasy]

• The New Law That Could Kill Legal Sports Betting in America [Joe Pomp]

📊 Poll of the Day

I think yesterday’s poll is an interesting discussion for where you’d draft a player knowing their results. If you knew a WR would finish WR1, you draft them WR1. If you knew they’d finish WR5, you’d still be likely to draft them WR5. If you knew a WR would finish WR60, you probably don’t draft them at WR60 because you’d rather take a shot at upside.

WR20 is more difficult because it’s right there in the middle. WR20 by ADP is Mike Evans and he goes at the 3/4 turn. After finishing as WR9 last year, would you be happy with a WR20 finish? I don’t think so. It may not lose you your home league or kill your chances of advancing out of your pod but it’s also not helping if you’re just performing at expectations. And as we go further into a draft, I think that goal of leaning into upside scenarios becomes more and more valuable.