📝 News & Notes

• Chris Godwin will not participate in team related activities to begin training camp [Rick Stroud]

  My take: I expect this to impact Godwin’s ADP with him slowly dropping about a half a round. Combine this with the drafting of Egbuka, a player who thrived in the same slot role Godwin has owned, and the tea leaves aren’t great. My concern level is perhaps a 2/10 as it’s worth remembering coming off the 2022 ACL tear, the Bucs similarly slowly ramped him up with him still being available week 1.

• Nyheim Hines signs with the Los Angeles Chargers [Adam Schefter]

  My take: This doesn’t feel like a move you make at this point in the offseason if you have full confidence in Hampton + Harris, particularly for a team that doesn’t even throw often to their RBs. I think either this signing won’t impact anything fantasy related or it’s another sign that the Najee Harris injury is more severe than being reported. Both possible. My hot take is I think there’s currently a 5-10% chance Najee Harris doesn’t play a game this year.

• Terry McLaurin says everything is on the table including a hold-out, hold-in, and a trade request [Fox Sports]

  My take: There are too many high quality players going in the 3rd and 4th round to be drafting McLaurin at cost. This is McLaurin’s age 30 season and one of his last chances to cash in with a large contract, particularly after a very strong season with likely TD regression coming. I’m a bit concerned.

• Bengals OC says Chase Brown is a focal point of the offense [Charlie Goldsmith]

  My take: Nothing surprising but still very positive to see. He’s a volume dependent back on a high-powered offense which comes with its risks but if he can remain THE guy in Cincinnati, he’ll likely far surpass his round 3 cost. I’m overweight and still buying.

🔍 ADP Tracker

📈 Risers

• Dylan Sampson & Jerome Ford - You only need one person in a draft to pull the trigger and given the volatility of the situation, it’s not surprising these both keep rising. Sampson was a strong prospect and still only the 12th RB drafted in an unusually strong RB class. If a team took Sampson as their first rookie RB, the market would be viewing him quite favorably. I think there is still upside for both Sampson and Ford at their current prices.

• Xavier Worthy - Worthy is up 6 spots in the past week on the Rashee Rice likely suspension news. And I still think there’s another half a round to a round to climb. Draft him now because it won’t be long before he’s going in the 3rd round.

• Omarion Hampton - Don’t expect him to stop climbing after the Nyheim Hines news adds more fire to the Najee Harris concerns. I think his current price is fair but I wouldn’t be chasing him above the next tier of Kyren Williams and Breece Hall.

📉 Fallers

The general theme for this week’s fallers continues to be an overarching trend: it takes longer for players to fall than rise. To rise, you just need one person to reach. To fall, you need everyone to pass, and continue passing when they see the supposed ADP value, all while avoiding the autodraft picks. My general recommended strategy in these situations is to avoid the falling knife. This is my current stance on Rashee Rice, Quinshon Judkins, Jonnu Smith, and Najee Harris as they are still feeling the effects of their likely suspensions, recent trades, or unknown injury.

📊 Poll of the Day

I’m a bit surprised by the results of yesterday’s poll. Kaleb Johnson finished about where I expected but I was thinking it’d be far closer between Harvey and Henderson given half PPR scoring. Both have similar ADPs and similar competition for the backfield. Henderson the better prospect but Harvey likely on the better offense. Definitely a close call in my mind. I’m also a bit surprised Judkins didn’t get more love given it asked about just the fantasy playoffs meaning an early suspension wouldn’t crush his opportunity. But I think this shows the overall bearish feeling towards him and the situation.