📝 News & Notes

A few WRs changed jerseys at the deadline. Historically, most midseason moves hurt WR production in the current year. But for WRs who weren’t producing well, the new situation adds volatility. The base case remains unimpressive, but the tail-positive outcome is more plausible than it was on the old team. This is the overarching lens through which I am seeing yesterday’s WR trades.

• Jakobi Meyers traded to the Jaguars in exchange for a 4th and 6th round pick
  My take: Meyers had made it clear both on and off the field that he wanted out of Las Vegas. I don’t think Jacksonville is the best fit for Meyers but it’s at least a step up from how we’d project his rest-of-season with the Raiders. A quick ramp-up will be vital as Travis Hunter is set to miss at least the next three games and Brian Thomas Jr. is nursing a low-ankle sprain.

• Rashid Shaheed traded to Seahawks in exchange for a 4th and 5th round pick
  My take: This move increases the range of outcomes for Shaheed as he likely sacrifices volume for efficiency and TD equity. Shaheed himself has averaged more targets per game (7.3) than all non-JSN Seattle WRs (6.8) this year. The upside is there if he can become the true #2 WR but it also wouldn’t be surprising if he starts as a rotational WR and fails to unlock his upside. Shaheed also gets the sneaky benefit of not having a bye week given Seattle’s bye was in Week 8.

• Adonai Mitchell is traded to Jets as part of a package for Sauce Gardner

  My take: This has to be considered a positive for Adonai Mitchell as it’s clear he was buried on the depth chart in Indy. Not expecting any breakout season though given the low pass volume and general downside of being with the Jets but he has a clear path to however valuable the #2 WR role could be. Alec Pierce’s role is also strengthened by this trade.

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📝 FF Market: Buy / Sell / Hold

Week 1: BUY Zach Charbonnet, SELL Aaron Jones, HOLD Jaylen Waddle
Week 2: BUY Brian Thomas Jr., SELL James Cook, HOLD AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith
Week 3: BUY Jaylen Warren, SELL David Montgomery, HOLD Derrick Henry
Week 4: BUY Tetairoa McMillan, SELL Alvin Kamara, HOLD Jake Ferguson
Week 5: No buy/sell/hold given
Week 6: BUY Brock Bowers, SELL Hollywood Brown, HOLD Rico Dowdle
Week 7: BUY Emeka Egbuka, SELL DK Metcalf, HOLD Rome Odunze
Week 8: BUY Brock Bowers, SELL Tee Higgins, HOLD Rashee Rice

Chase Brown: BUY
With Samaje Perine week-to-week due to a high ankle sprain, Chase Brown will see a major short-term bump as seen by his 14 targets in Week 9. High ankle sprains are notoriously difficult to come back from for RBs so it wouldn’t surprise me if even once Perine is technically back, he struggles to regain his pre-injury role.

Kyle Monangai: SELL
I am seeing a decent amount of chatter that people believe Kyle Monangai will overtake D’Andre Swift after his strong performance last week. If someone in your league believes that, I would take the opportunity to sell Monangai. Swift is having one of his best years and is clearly in favor with the current staff. Even in the couple weeks leading up to Week 9, Monangai was getting more touches, likely as a result of them taking it easier on Swift’s injury. I think the most likely outcome is we see continued usage similar to weeks 7 and 8. If not that, I believe it’s actually more likely Swift takes a larger role more similar to what we saw in the early weeks than Monangai overtaking Swift as the primary back.

Seattle DST: HOLD
If Seattle DST is available, go and grab them. If you already have them, hold them because these next four weeks should be fun. 3 of their next 4 opponents are top 10 matchups, including the two easiest matchups vs TEN and MIN. Beyond the friendly matchups, this defense is set up to score well. A strong offense keeps their opponents playing from behind and a good front 7 puts pressure on the QBs, turning into sacks and turnovers.

📊 Poll of the Day

Yesterday’s poll: Who is your RB1 rest-of-season?

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