📊 Deep Dive: The Loudness Tax
As camp reports are causing substantial shifts to ADP, I started thinking are we perhaps being swayed by camps that are simply louder than others? Are there camps that historically just don’t get as much attention, maybe because the beat reporters aren’t as active or bullish, or the camps have stricter video policies? And as a result, are we thus wrongly giving bumps to players from
I worked on a study of every NFL training camp this summer, then went back and did the same for 2022 through 2025. The question: does the amount of media noise coming out of a camp disproportionately move the ADP of players moreso than it should? The short answer: yes.
In rounds 8 through 18, the market shifts are dominated by the loud camps. Nearly every big ADP jump this camp with no injury or signing behind it came out of a loud camp. Kayshon Boutte up 17 picks on glowing reports. Jaydon Blue up 12 on coach praise alone. Meanwhile the late round fallers had minimal news, mostly just the result of being passed by the climbers.
Loudness is often consistent year over year. The Titans were the quietest camp in football four straight years no matter who they drafted. The Cowboys and Chiefs were loud every single year no matter how good they were. And a huge share of Jaguars camp content this year is written by jaguars.com's own staff, then aggregated like it came from a beat reporter. That finding was rather interesting when my personal feeling of Jacksonville is all the beat reporters are overtly bullish on every player.
So are there hidden opportunities? Quiet franchises with real reports that aren’t getting picked up heavily.
Jalen Coker (CAR, WR63): Canales named him the WR2 before the offseason even started, then paid him in June. The Brazzell injury cleared out his only young competition
Juwan Johnson (NO, TE17): the beat's pick for one of the five best players in all of camp
Jalen Nailor (LV, WR60): running with the starters and Cousins already trusts him, Raiders one of the quietest camps every year (honorable mention to one of my most drafted TEs, Michael Mayer)
Malik Washington (MIA, WR71): the leading candidate for team target leader in a room with no clear top guy, going at pick 202
Caleb Douglas (MIA, free): 6 foot 4 third round pick making contested catches while the veterans ahead of him stay quiet, early reports have him favored to be the #2 WR
And the flip side: the Loudness Tax list. These risers have one fuel source: camp reports from franchises that are loud every single year. Meaning we should always expect those camps to be loud.
Jaydon Blue (DAL): up 12 picks on coach praise alone.
Cyrus Allen (KC): up 14 on Mahomes chemistry notes. Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Xavier Worthy all walked this road before
Kayshon Boutte (NE): up 17, the biggest pure buzz rise in football. Honorable mention for Demario Douglas. Both being hyped up by a camp that has a history of overhyping.
Ja'Kobi Lane (BAL): a potentially cautionary tale from a team that rarely uses their tertiary WRs
Sorry for breaking the 60-second goal withn this deep dive but would love to hear from others if this resonates and how they may be acting upon it. Tag me on Twitter @JustinHerzig with your thoughts as I look forward to reading them.
🔗 Around the Web
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🎥 The Fantasy Footballers: 10 Late Round Sleepers for 2026 w/ Andy, Mike, and Jason.
Yahoo Sports: Using trends from the best and worst fantasy teams to build 2026 strategy the data on what winning rosters actually did.
RotoWire: 2026 Draft Strategy From Early, Mid, and Late Positions a slot-by-slot plan for wherever you land.
FantasyLife: Draft Strategy From the 1.03: Build Around Ja'Marr Chase how to construct a roster off the third pick.
📆 NFL Countdown
19 days until NFL roster cutdowns, when teams trim to 53 (Sunday, August 30)
29 days until the NFL season kicks off (Patriots at Seahawks, September 9)
33 days until Week 1 Sunday and the fantasy season begins (September 13)
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