Tonight kicks off the final pre-season week of the season, with 4 Thursday Night Football games. I’ve been deep in the lab researching these games, coaching tendencies, expected personnel, etc. and have my favorite picks below. All odds and pricing are according to ProphetX, where you can join now and get $20 after you trade $10.

PIT @ BUF: OVER 35.5
SF @ LV: UNDER 37.5
NE @ CLE: UNDER 35.5
LAR @ LAC: UNDER 38.5

Bit of a slow news day when you filter out the noise. Below are the three things I think mattered.

Tucker Kraft (GB, TE) cleared a big hurdle Wednesday, taking 11-on-11 reps at the joint practice with Arizona after coming off the PUP list, and said his surgically repaired knee looks "spectacular" as he works back from last season's torn ACL.
My take: Been a solid drumbeat regarding Tucker Kraft’s bill of health. I still prefer grabbing an elite guy or waiting a bit longer but I think Kraft is a fine pick at his price.

Zay Flowers (BAL, WR) was held out of Wednesday's practice for "precautionary reasons" and is expected to be fine for Week 1, per the Ravens beat.
My take: File this under late-August noise. Zay Flowers is the clear alpha WR on one of the highest powered offenses. The question is just can he score enough TDs to surpass his 3rd round cost. I try to mix him in to set up Lamar stacks but am not overweight as there’s just so many other WRs and RBs that go in that round I also like.

Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, QB) won't play in Friday's preseason finale but says he's confident he'll be ready for Week 1, while Tua Tagovailoa gets the start, leaving Atlanta's co-starter question unresolved into the final week.
My take: Tua is still highly likely to be the Week 1 starter but for all Falcons skill players, the ceiling outcomes likely come with a healthy Penix.

Dr. Deepak Chona is here with a data-driven read on the injuries shaping draft boards. His full rundown:

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders - Comments suggest a ~mild high ankle. Avg 3 wks. Wk 1 TBD. Data suggests a Wk 1-3 return plus a dip in touches for ~3 wks.

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals - Suspect a mild LCL. Avg 1-2 wks if so. Suspect an MRI pending to confirm, but lean toward playing Wk 1.

Mike Evans, WR, 49ers - Groin. Avg 2-3 wks. Re-injury risk for a WR age 30+ w/ a severe hamstring plus 2 soft-tissue camp injuries is among the highest in the league.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Chiefs - Foot. Suspect mild. Practiced Mon after the preseason game and wasn't using a boot today. Lean no limit for Wk 1.

Najee Harris, RB, Giants - Data strongly suggests a dip in strength. Comments confirm he's not 100% yet. Not expecting a major role.

Tank Dell, WR, Texans - Comments suggest limited usage and production. Data projects a major dip through '26 but a return near pre-injury form by the start of '27.

George Kittle, TE, 49ers - Video is impressive. Data projects a real dip only 7-8 months out. Elites do have higher rates of being outliers, but we're passing.

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants - Suspect the Najee signing isn't related to Skattebo. Data favors ~85% pre-injury form plus a rise until late-Oct.

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts - Reported to return this wk. Suspect a ~4 wk ramp up once practicing. Reassuring that the team knew about the injury before the extension. ADP 100 is a reasonable bet.

Chris Olave, WR, Saints - Comments suggest low concern today. Any concussion carries a high risk for an extended absence.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers - If initial reports are accurate, data favors playing Wk 1. Bowles did say he might not be back for a while, but he returned day 1 of camp.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Broncos - Missed games all but 1 yr. No major injury or pattern. No significant risk factors.

Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.

A video and two reads to prep for the final week before cuts:

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