The training-room door is getting a workout, so this one is all about who's banged up and what it does to your board.

Luther Burden III (CHI, WR) is expected to miss time with a groin injury after going down awkwardly in a one-on-one rep with Tyrique Stevenson on Saturday, and with DJ Moore already shipped to Buffalo, Chicago's receiver room is suddenly thin.
My take: Frustrating for a hyped up WR I was mixing in late in the fourth-round but a groin injury will slow me down. There are enough other WRs around him I’m happy drafting that I’ll either wait to scoop him in the 5th or be okay with others taking the added risk.

Kyler Murray (MIN, QB) is separating in the Vikings' quarterback battle, taking roughly two-thirds of the first-team 11-on-11 snaps with 63 first-team reps over the last four practices to J.J. McCarthy's 33.
My take: I wish this would have happened sooner but the Vikings really need to just announce Kyler as the starter and let him run with the team. These last few weeks though definitely have given me cause for concern in the case Kyler struggles mid-season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them give McCarthy a chance.

Deshaun Watson (CLE, QB) took every first-team rep in Saturday's team periods on a day the rotation was supposed to belong to Shedeur Sanders, who instead split the leftovers with Dillon Gabriel, and Todd Monken says he'll name a preseason-opener starter by Monday.
My take: Reps beat quotes, and these reps flat-out contradicted the quote, so I think Watson is strengthening his grip on the starting role. This is actually what I want to see because either Watson has a chance to regain his old form (extremely unlikely) or the much more likely outcome is they realize Watson’s is donezo, bench him, and never look back. They would then give Shedeur Sanders the reigns to see whether he can be an NFL starter.

Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, RB) keeps splitting early-down work with Chris Rodriguez in Jacksonville, and the committee has only firmed up as the pads came on, yet his price is still climbing on Underdog.
My take: The upside with Tuten is contagious but there is substantial risk in Jacksonville with how valuable of a role he’ll have in the offense. Chris Rodriguez is the favorite for red zone work and LeQuint Allen Jr. will eat into pass down snaps. I’m not full fading Tuten but likely will be below weight as I draft David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift ahead of him.

Ja'Kobi Lane (BAL, WR) is the rookie name that won't stop popping in Baltimore, with beat writer Jamison Hensley saying he's not sure he's seen a rookie camp like it in 27 years covering the team.
My take: There are always rookie WR drumbeats that never pan out and the could be the case here, but I’m willing to give it a chance. Particularly on Lamar teams. There’s also been positive reports on Rashod Bateman and his new role being moved around the field so I’m not all in on Lane, but willing to sprinkle in both these guys as last round stack options.

Dr. Deepak Chona is here with a data-driven read on the injuries shaping draft boards. His full rundown:

Malik Nabers, WR, NYG - Lean playing Wk 1. Suspect ADP will rise in next 2 wks when he projects to return to contact drills

CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL - Undervalued? Wk 3 severe high ankle. Stats tank avg 8 wks. Pre and post (8 games), on pace for 1400 yds

Mike Evans, WR, SF - Quad strain in camp is not associated w/missed regular season wks. HIGH risk regardless due to hamstring history + age

Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB - Wk 6 hamstring hurt '25. Pre-injury WR 3. Post WR 43. Also coincided w/Baker injuries. Project rise in '26

Alec Pierce, WR, IND - Comments suggest practicing next 1-2 wks. If so, likely ~pre-injury level by Wk 1. VERY limited info

Cam Skattebo, RB, NYG - Minor injury at camp. No major concern. Data projects full volume Wk 1, but rise in efficiency to 90% pre-injury by late Oct

Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI - PHI O-line likely explains '25 drop-off. '24: led league in yards before contact (by 200+ yds). '25: ~league avg. 3rd highest negative rush rate in league. C Jurgens + LG Dickerson + RT Johnson played thru injuries w/dip. Project healthy start '26

Tucker Kraft, TE, GB - Nearing 9 months from surgery, which is earliest time GB allows players to practice. Suspect ADP will rise next ~2 wks when he projects to return

Jordyn Tyson, WR, NO - Minimal '26 concern. Avoiding in dynasty, knee history predicts shorter prime

AJ Brown, WR, NE - Dislocated thumb. If no recurrence before Wk 1, would not expect in-season impact. '25 stats likely affected by lingering hamstring. Wks 1-7: WR 29, Wks 12-17: WR 11

Josh Jacobs, RB, GB - Groin. Reportedly minor. Minimal concern if returns w/in 2 wks

DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI - Hamstring. Reportedly minor. If does not linger into preseason, data favors no in-season impact

Makai Lemon, WR, PHI - Also reportedly minor hamstring. Minimal injury concern unless lingers, but missing camp time tends to dip rookie WR stats early

Brock Bowers, TE, LV - Likely at 100%. PCLs that don't require surgery don't tend to cause lingering impact on next season stats

Rashee Rice, WR, KC - Very likely 100% for '26. But having loose bodies removed suggests cartilage damage. Long term risk is elevated

George Kittle, TE, SF - Wk 1 TBD. Lean toward playing. Data favors MAJOR dip in explosiveness if active and most would see dip in targets for entire '26

Xavier Worthy, WR, KC - Video suggests AC sprain. Different than labrum which he had surgery for. Suspect ~100% by Wk 1

De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, SF - Reportedly minor hamstring. Low concern if returns by pre-season, but missing camp can dip rookie WR stats early

Jalen McMillan, WR, TB - Knee. Limited info. Prior injuries not knee related, which may work slightly in his favor

Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.

Two reads and a watch to firm up your board before draft season peaks.

Interested in advertising with us? Email [email protected].

Forwarded this email? Join our mailing list.