Camp is getting chippy and the injury reports are piling up, and we’ll keep monitoring those as we get more information. But for today, below the news and notes, I’m sharing my thoughts on a new trend we’re seeing in best ball.

A.J. Brown (NE, WR) dislocated his thumb in a red-zone rep against Christian Gonzalez on Monday, popped it back into place, and refused to leave, telling reporters "you keep going" before finishing the session with 3 touchdowns.
My take: Zero concern here, and honestly it is the perfect setup for today's issue. I still think AJ Brown is a bit overpriced, particularly when you also have to reach a bit above actual value to get his QB. More on that below.

The 49ers' receiver room is a mess as the injuries keep stacking. Ricky Pearsall is out for the entire 2026 season after season-ending PCL surgery, San Francisco brought Deebo Samuel back to help fill the void, and now Mike Evans sat out Monday with a quad strain while Christian Kirk worked off to the side with a calf.
My take: Pearsall being done for the year is the real domino. It still may be a bit until we see where Deebo’s ADP settles but I’m not convinced he’s the better pick between him and rookie De'zhaun Stribling. Week 1, sure. But give me the youth and upside vs the clearly declining veteran. Or just give me Kittle who is a smash pick at his cost.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) has now missed several straight practices, and when asked Monday whether he needs a new deal before returning, he shot the idea down with "nah, it's not about that", pointing back to the minor back tweak from his conditioning test that Dan Campbell has downplayed.
My take: So scratch the hold-in theory, this one is about the back. It still sounds minor and Gibbs is staying my 1.01, but a nagging back on your first overall pick is worth watching, so I want to see him practicing in pads before I fully relax. If he is still on the sideline a week from now, then we can have a discussion.

Here is a best ball concept I have been thinking about for a bit, and A.J. Brown is the cleanest example of it.

When Brown's trade to New England became official on June 1, Drake Maye's Underdog ADP climbed from around 71 (late 6th round) to about 66 today, and he is now the QB3 off the board behind only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Part of that is obvious and fair: Maye just added an elite, target-hogging No. 1 receiver, so his own value genuinely went up. However, that trade was a near lock weeks beforehand and baked into his ADP of 71, so I think this is something else.

Look at where Brown goes now. His ADP is around pick 18, smack in the middle of Round 2. In a 12-team snake, the manager who drafts 7th takes Brown at 18, and their next picks fall at 31, 42, 55, and 66. That last one is most relevant: Maye's ADP is 66, so a Brown drafter who wants the stack has to grab Maye right there, because he is highly unlikely to survive to their following pick at 79. Every manager who pairs Brown with his quarterback is basically forced to reach for Maye a touch early, and that stacking demand is what pulls Maye up to 66 even though his standalone value is probably closer to 70. And to be clear: if you drafted Brown, taking Maye at 66 is totally fine, it’s just a very clear example of how a player’s ADP is often about more than just their individual value.

Now scale it up. The effect gets bigger when a quarterback has a stack of expensive pass-catchers all competing for him. Caleb Williams is the poster child: Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and even D'Andre Swift drafters are all fighting over the same guy, so his price keeps drifting up and the market just accepts it as the new landscape.

The inverse is where we can likely find the best valiues. Jayden Daniels is falling because nobody is fighting over him. Terry McLaurin's ADP is 43, and in that same idea a McLaurin drafter's sixth-round pick lands right around 67, which is exactly where Daniels is going. So the one manager most likely to stack Daniels can already get him at his ADP without reaching at all, which is likely actually a depressed ADP from where he’d be going if stacking wasn’t a thing. Nobody has to bid him up, so he just sits there as QB4 making him one of my favorite values on the board.

Bottom line: be deliberate about quarterbacks and stacks. Some QBs are overdrafted purely because of who catches their passes, and some are underdrafted for the exact same reason. Knowing which is which can help you in more ways than it seems.

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