…on Thursday Night Football, and with Baker Mayfield out and an undrafted rookie under center for Tampa, nearly all of the trustworthy fantasy value comes from the home team.

My favorite bet of the day is Bucky Irving first TD at 8% or +1150 on Novig. Average price at sportsbooks is between +900 to +1000 so we’re already getting some value. And I think the market is overreacting too much to Sean Tucker getting short down work last week. New users can get $25 on Novig after depositing $10 via this link.

Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving are both active for Tampa, but rookie Jalon Daniels is running a heavily capped passing game, with 32% of his Week 4 throws landing at or behind the line of scrimmage, and Godwin's targets have been almost entirely at the line too.
My take: Emeka Egbuka is the only Buccaneer WR I’d play, and even that is touchdown-or-bust against a soft Dallas secondary. I’m willing to also start Bucky Irving with hopes he bounces back to his Weeks 1 and 2 role.

Justin Jefferson (ankle) said Wednesday he is aiming to play Sunday at New Orleans, a step in the right direction after being banged up.
My take: that is exactly what Vikings managers wanted to hear, though I would still glance at Friday's practice report before locking him in with full confidence.

Lamar Jackson (hamstring) sat out Wednesday's practice, but coach Jesse Minter would not rule him out for Sunday night against the Falcons, saying there is a lot of time between now and Sunday with Jackson getting heavy treatment.
My take: I would not panic yet with this much time left in the week, but have a streaming plan ready. A Lamar absence would tank the entire Baltimore passing game, so watch Friday's report before you bank on him.

Elsewhere, Saquon Barkley (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday, an ominous sign for Sunday against Jacksonville that keeps Will Shipley in the flex conversation, Brock Bowers (knee), Dallas Goedert (knee), and Ladd McConkey (foot) were all limited or out at Wednesday's walkthroughs, and Pat Bryant (ankle) sat for Denver.

8:15pm ET on Prime Video: TB @ DAL (TB 19%, +9, O/U 47.5)

Start with confidence
Tampa Bay - No one you can trust behind a rookie QB and a 19-point implied total
Dallas - QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR George Pickens, RB Javonte Williams, K Brandon Aubrey

Start them if you need to
Tampa Bay - RB Bucky Irving, WR Emeka Egbuka
Dallas - TE Jake Ferguson

Sit them if you can
Tampa Bay - QB Jalon Daniels, WR Chris Godwin, TE Cade Otton, RB Sean Tucker, RB Kenneth Gainwell, TB DST
Dallas - WR Ryan Flournoy, DAL DST

The best sign-up offers live right now on the prediction market platforms we track. Grab them while they last:

Interested in advertising with us? Email [email protected].

Forwarded this email? Join our mailing list.