…on Thursday Night Football, and thanks to Michael Penix Jr. getting the start, we can at least be hopeful for a competitive game. Before we get into the fantasy breakdown, I’m sharing some alpha for one of my current favorite prediction market bets.

Michael Penix Jr., Comeback Player of the Year (2-4c)

One of the beauties of prediction markets is being able to identify a temporary window to trade a market that may not resolve for quite longer. Because you can sell out of positions at any point rather than just waiting for the bet to resolve, you can find hidden value in markets by finding short-term plays. This is a perfect opportunity.

The Falcons are 0-2 and just got run off the field 34-3 in Carolina. But now they get Michael Penix back and have three straight primetime games. And with people just assuming Patrick Mahomes will walk away with this award, Michael Penix sits at just 2-3c on most platforms.

And as noted, you don't actually need Penix to beat Mahomes, but a couple weeks in primetime parlayed with a returning QB could create enough of a narrative to drive his price up significantly. Direct links to the markets below.

Kalshi: NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Polymarket US: NFL Comeback Player of the Year

Michael Penix Jr. is set to start Thursday against the Packers, giving Atlanta its young quarterback of the future back under center after Cooper Rush drew the Week 2 start.
My take: Penix returning doesn’t guarantee fantasy success for this offense, but it gives it a MUCH better chance than with Cooper Rush. It lifts Drake London back to a locked-in WR2 and gives Kyle Pitts a faint pulse. Bijan Robinson eats no matter who is under center, but a real passing game keeps this from being a pure Bijan funnel, and Penix himself is a boom-bust streamer with the arm to hit London deep.

Jayden Reed has been ruled out for Thursday against the Falcons, with Matt LaFleur saying the wideout returned to Green Bay for more testing on his neck and has no timeline to return.
My take: this funnels targets to Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and especially Tucker Kraft, who is on the field for 98% of the snaps and is a genuine weekly TE1.

Jaxson Dart will miss the rest of the regular season with a knee injury, New York confirmed Wednesday, though a playoff return is not off the table, and Jameis Winston takes over the offense.
My take: fade the idea that Jameis slinging it helps Malik Nabers. Deepak Chona notes Nabers is playing through a shoulder dislocation, where major production dips are common and in-season re-aggravation risk is high, and trading steady drives for deep chucks does not fix that.

Puka Nacua did not practice Wednesday, but Sean McVay said he could get on the field later this week with the groin issue.
My take: that is trending the right way for Sunday. If Nacua plays, Davante Adams slides back to strong play but not quite elite, so keep an eye on tomorrow’s newsletter and the Friday practice reports for Puka’s status.

Denver's backfield got murkier Wednesday, with Jonah Coleman (ankle) not practicing, RJ Harvey (hamstring) limited, and J.K. Dobbins (hip) limited.
My take: Coleman was the top waiver add this week, but if he cannot go, it’s a war of attrition in who is able to suit up. Any of the three would be must starts alone, questionable if with one other, and full avoids if all three active.

Elsewhere, Mike Evans (hip) and Rico Dowdle (toe) sat out Wednesday, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears were both non-participants with ankle issues in Tennessee, the Chargers put David Njoku (fibula) on IR (but Charlie Kolar no longer needs IR), and Carolina moved Jonathon Brooks to IR with AJ Dillon sliding in behind Chuba Hubbard.

8:15pm ET on Amazon Prime: ATL @ GB (ATL 30%, +5.5, O/U 43.5)

Start with confidence
Atlanta - RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London
Green Bay - QB Jordan Love, WR Christian Watson, TE Tucker Kraft

Start them if you need to
Atlanta - QB Michael Penix Jr.
Green Bay - WR Matthew Golden, RB Kaleb Johnson, GB DST, K Trey Smack

Sit them if you can
Atlanta - TE Kyle Pitts, ATL DST, K Nick Folk
Green Bay - RB Marshawn Lloyd

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