
Week 1 delivered chaos: a 96-point track meet in Charlotte, a Cardinals stunner in LA, and a Kyler Murray concussion. Here's the fantasy fallout for every team that played Sunday.
📝 Week 1 Key Takeaways
CHI - Caleb Williams went nuclear (269 pass yds, 4 total TD, two on scrambles) in a 59-point explosion, but the run-game was the more impressive story with 6 total rushing TDs, and both Swift and Monangai topping 100 rushing yards. Colston Loveland caught zero on a 92% route rate: a clear buy-low. Ben Johnson wasn’t lying that this team may set the record for points scored.
CAR - Bryce Young threw for 361 and 4 TDs in a shootout loss, and Chuba Hubbard locked down 79% of the backfield snaps. Jonathon Brooks is the clear #2 (only 12 snaps played) after one week. Also, we’re going to be playing QBs and pass catchers all year against the Bears.
BUF - Josh Allen (324 yds, 4 TD) was the MVP again, and Dalton Kincaid (5-130) looks to truly have the promised increased usage. In my opinion this is a Buy High opportunity.
HOU - C.J. Stroud threw for 274 and 2 scores but two lost fumbles cost Houston, and David Montgomery (23 touches, 3 TD) buried Woody Marks. Nico Collins is the only Texans wideout you can trust.
DET - Jahmyr Gibbs was the RB1 he was drafted to be: 29 carries, 156 yards, 2 TDs plus 5 grabs. No risk of any high value touches going to backups.
NO - Tyler Shough threw for 410 in a wild OT loss, but Travis Etienne played under 60% of snaps and split carries with Kendre Miller. This didn’t even have Alvin Kamara active and Etienne already struggled with usage. I’m concerned.
BAL - Derrick Henry punched in 3 TDs and Lamar threw for 324, but with Zay Flowers (5-150-1) leaving with a hamstring and Ja’Kobi Lane possibly suffering a fractured wrist, Rashod Bateman becomes a strong waiver claim this week.
IND - Daniel Jones and the Colts scored first, then got run off the field. Jonathan Taylor remains matchup proof given his volume and goal line role. Josh Downs is a buy-low as Alec Pierce may have reaggravated his injury, and Tyler Warren played 93% of snaps, but there's nothing else to chase off this box score.
MIN - Kyler Murray left with a concussion on his third series, Carson Wentz relieved him for 3 TDs, and Justin Jefferson (8-92-2) still went off. Watch Murray's protocol status all week.
GB - Green Bay led 22-10 and then coughed up 29 straight in a full meltdown. With Josh Jacobs still on the exempt list, the backfield gave fantasy managers nothing.
ARI - Biggest upset of the day: Jacoby Brissett ran the offense through his favorite target, Trey McBride (9-95-1). Rookie Jeremiyah Love scored his first NFL TD.
LAC - Justin Herbert (17-27, 209, TD, INT) was sacked three times and the Chargers, 9.5-point favorites, never led. A quiet, brutal fantasy day across the board.
JAX - Trevor Lawrence needed just 23 throws for 4 TDs in a rout, and Parker Washington looked the part of a #1 WR. The backfield was mostly split between Tutan and Rodriguez.
CLE - Deshaun Watson was a disaster (down 24-0 at half) and a QB change feels near. Rookie Denzel Boston was the lone bright spot. Not reading too much into this as Watson is likely to be benched very soon.
PIT - Aaron Rodgers looked spry but went 0-for-6 deep, and the Warren/Dowdle backfield is a true toss-up. T.J. Watt's pick-6 won it, and DK Metcalf managed just 4-40 on 10 targets. Steelers squeak out the victory but the team was mostly a fantasy disappointment.
ATL - With Tua and Penix both hurt, Cooper Rush started and Bijan Robinson (173 scrimmage yds, TD) was the entire offense. Kyle Pitts slid into a snap-share rotation: downgrade him so long as Rush is QB.
NYJ - Breece Hall (17-85-1) and Braelon Allen powered a 142-yard ground game, and Garrett Wilson stays a must-start. Rookie slot WR Omar Cooper Jr. left with an apparent high-ankle sprain.
TEN - Cam Ward managed just 140 yards under heavy pressure, the Pollard/Spears split crept toward 50-50, and rookie Elic Ayomanor (TD) may be passing a target-less Calvin Ridley.
CIN - Joe Burrow (25-35, 254) leaned on Mike Gesicki (5-78-1), whose 41% target rate was likely more matchup dependent than anything else. Better fantasy days ahead for the Bengals.
TB - Baker Mayfield lost three fumbles (one returned for a TD) in a sloppy giveaway-fest. Bucky Irving stayed the lead back, and Emeka Egbuka (5-63) led the team in receiving.
LV - Ashton Jeanty looked quite healthy, as he finished with 102 rushing yards and 2 receiving TDs in the Klint Kubiak debut. Kirk Cousins was efficient (21-30) feeding Jeanty, Jack Bech, and Michael Mayer.
MIA - Miami's offense sputtered to 13 points with almost nothing to salvage. A worrying opener top to bottom. Caleb Douglas looked solid but this team is going to struggle to string together enough drives to make anyone besides Achane and Willis fantasy relevant.
PHI - Jalen Hurts threw three TDs, (a pair to Dallas Goedert and a 64-yard strike to Dontayvion Wicks) while Saquon was quiet (16-80). Most concerning for Saquon is how bad his yards before contact was today.
WAS - Jayden Daniels struggled as he his offensive line gave him minimal support against the impressive Eagles D-Line. McLaurin led the WRs in snaps but managed only 4 targets which combined with the team performance, makes him a solid buy low candidate alongside Daniels.
Many of these stats come from Nathan Jahnke’s PFF Fantasy Football Recap which you can view the full article here.
⚕️ Injury Corner w/ Deepak Chona
A.J. Brown (NE): the 6-week timeline confirms high severity, and most WRs see a major production hit (20+%) plus re-injury risk over the first 4-6 weeks back.
Brock Bowers (LV): reports point to a Wk 2 target, but the data leans Wk 3 with a rapid ~2-week ramp-up.
Sam Darnold (SEA): seeking 4 opinions suggests a severe injury (a suspected glute tear he'll try to play through), likely out Wk 2 and Wk 3, lean 3-5 week timeline.
Kyler Murray (MIN): concussions average ~8 days, and while ~1/3 avoid missing a game, the most common path is sitting Wk 2 and returning Wk 3.
Zay Flowers (BAL): hamstring re-aggravation, avg ~3-5 wks, and it would be a major outlier for him to play Wk 2.
Ladd McConkey (LAC): a possible rib injury; if it's fractured, avg ~2-3 wks, otherwise a Wk 2 return is on the table.
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): trending toward a Wk 2 return, and yr-1-post-ACL QBs don't typically show a passing dip.
Christian Watson (GB): 147 yards and 2 TDs, and yr-2-post-ACL production tends to blow past yr 1.
Tucker Kraft (GB): 6 targets in Wk 1, and TE post-ACL target volume averages a ~6-week ramp, so consider buying now.
Stefon Diggs (WAS): 9 targets, and yr-2-post-ACL usually brings a production rise.
Alec Pierce (IND): led the team in targets (6) on limited snaps, and a ~4-week post-surgical WR ramp says buy now.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF): a 77% snap rate, his highest in ~2 years, and he's finally healthy.
Rome Odunze (CHI): 58% route share and limited in practice, so project a rise over the next 2 weeks barring a setback.
Bucky Irving (TB): his passing-game work cratered 70% after last year's shoulder injury, but 7 catches on 7 targets says the volume is back.
Jeremiyah Love (ARI): 11 carries to Allgeier's 17, the ultimate role is TBD, and most rookie RBs take ~3 games to ramp up touches.
Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.
🏆 Playing Survivor?
If so, highly recommend checking out this analysis of the differences between how Circa entries and how Splash Sports entries picked in Week 1: What Circa's Week 1 Ownership Tells Us About the Splash Field
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