If you had a nice evening away from the internet, you won Sunday night. The rest of us lived a crazy rollercoaster thinking Ashton Jeanty was out for the season with a knee injury to eventually him merely spraining an ankle. Good on those who missed the craziness and are simply counting on FFin60 for their weekend recap.

However, it also got me thinking about Week 1 availability among the slew of injuries we’ve been tracking. Today’s newsletter includes an injury deep dive and a sneak peek of an analysis of Underdog Predict’s markets to better forecast who we’ll see on the field Week 1.

To level set, prediction markets are online platforms where people buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, such as elections, economic data, or sports. The prices act as live probabilities, where a share costing 30 cents means the crowd estimates a 30% chance of that event happening.

In this situation, the market we’re interested in is “NFL Player: To play Week 1 2026” as seen below. For example, you can get down $100 on Malik Nabers to play Week 1 and you would make $18. Or $100 on him not to play Week 1 and get a $500 payout.

We’ve gone through all the players and come up with their estimated probability, including the range of confidence based off the spread between the Yes and No markets. You can view an example of the analysis below for the RBs.

Dr. Deepak Chona is here with a data-driven read on the injuries shaping draft boards. His full rundown:

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers - Optimism. The 8/14 report after seeing a specialist was a sprained toe but stable, and an MRI would've already been done. Bowles said "not sure" about Wk 1, and I suspect that vague comment may drive value down. Data favors a Wk 1 return w/ minimal dip.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers - Comments suggest he could play right now, though I'd expect a large degree of practice load management all season. Drafting CMC comes w/ HIGH overall risk given the soft-tissue history plus age 30 plus the '25 workload. Not raising the risk level based on the current situation.

Puka Nacua, WR, Rams - Suspect a return to practice this wk. If so, in-season re-injury risk is ~ mild (~10%).

Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions - Diagnosis not clear, but comments suggest low long-term concern. If true, most hips would allow a Wk 1 return. No dip projected from the offseason surgery.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks - Comments suggest Wk 1 is possible, but I suspect it's very unlikely. Data favors high re-injury risk before 9 months, which would be late-Nov. Project a late-Nov return plus a 6-wk ramp up.

Luther Burden, WR, Bears - Data favors Wk 1 w/o a dip. Re-injury risk 10-15%.

Malik Nabers, WR, Giants - Suspect this wk or next he practices w/o a non-contact jersey. If so, that nearly confirms a Wk 1 return. WRs avg a 4-wk ramp up in snaps and targets.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers - Very likely playing Wk 1. Data favors a strong return but a ~6-wk ramp up in volume.

Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers - Data suggests no ramp up needed now. About 1/2 of players make it back to pre-injury level after 2 ACLs, and his profile is favorable.

Chubba Hubbard, RB, Panthers - "Legit" hamstring. Comments lean ready Wk 1. Typically see a real dip in touches and ypc.

Michael Penix, QB, Falcons - Data favors a rapid ramp up. QBs don't tend to see a dip in passing even in yr 1 post-ACL. His prior ACLs were on the opposite knee, so low short-term concern.

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos - Rushing and passing production likely to be at baseline. Low re-injury risk.

Makai Lemon, WR, Eagles - Limited practice after 2.5 wks. Typically ~10% in-season risk, but this is a re-aggravation, so the risk is much higher. Lean playing Wk 1 w/o a dip.

James Conner, RB, Cardinals - Not a full go yet. Avg is ~10-11 months, so it likely will be soon. Expect a slow ramp up.

Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.

A fresh mock draft to watch and two reads to firm up your board:

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