📝 News & Notes

• James Cook signs four-year, $48 million contract extension [Tom Pelissero]

  My take: The days of Cook slipping to the 5th round are over as I expect his ADP to settle near the 3 / 4 turn. His upside is still capped by the usage of Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, particularly the latter in the passing game, but he has almost as good a shot as any RB to lead the league in TDs.

💰️ Herzig’s Best Ball Nugget

Travis Etienne is one of my clear targets this week as the current range of outcomes greatly favor him. Here’s how I see the plausible scenarios and likelihood of each:

1) Primary RB for Jaguars: Etienne played every offensive snap on the Jaguars’ first preseason game drive. He then followed that up with strong practices and continuing to look like the team’s top option. No guarantee he keeps it all season but he’d be a multi-round value if we knew he was the week 1 starter.
Likelihood: 60-70%
2) Etienne traded: There’s a chance his starter usage is really just the Jaguars showcasing him for a trade. If Etienne is traded, it’s likely his ADP would rise as he’d likely be acquired by a team with a major need at RB (i.e., Texans, Cowboys).
Likelihood: 10-15%
3) Misdirection: The recent Etienne usage means nothing. Tank Bigsby still gets majority of rushes, Etienne gets his pass-game work, and Tuten remains the upside rookie in the shadows. In this case, Etienne is being overdrafted by about a round.
Likelihood: 20-30%

With all these scenarios, there is of course the possibility that things change during the season and another RB emerges. However, even with that assumption built in, I believe Etienne is still a strong pick with substantial upside in the Liam Coen offense at his current price.

⚕️ Injury Corner w/ Deepak Chona

• Matthew Stafford - Lean toward playing Wk 1. Epidurals imply disc herniation. Can recover, but carries HIGH re-injury risk. Caution w/Rams WRs

• Jordan Love - Low concern. Non-throwing hand. May affect handoffs, but likely not passing

• Anthony Richardson - Practicing. Grip strength = heavily tied to pinky finger. Likely drops accuracy in pre-season. Suspect no dip by Wk 1. +Re-injury risk

• Kenneth Walker - Risk = mildly elevated compared to league-avg RB due to recurrent soft tissue history

• Tyjae Spears - Avg = 3-4 wks. Data favors playing Wk 1. RBs avg ~4-6 wks to ramp up volume + stats

• Rachaad White - Groin. "Day to day". Avg = 1-2 wks w/rapid return to pre-injury production levels. Lean towards playing Wk 1 near full strength

• AJ Brown - Timeline confirms low severity. 1 wk out = ~5% re-aggravation risk. No dip projected, would not downgrade rank

• Ladd McConkey - Practicing. ~2 wks out. Diagnosis not revealed, but wearing wrap on thigh suggests groin or hamstring. Low concern

• Tyreek Hill - Oblique likely wouldn't cause missed time or dip by Wk 1. Suspect '24 drop-off = related to wrist injury. Avoiding due to mentality, not injury

• Jayden Reed - Avg ~4-5 wks. Data favors playing Wk 1 w/mild dip + moderate re-injury risk

• Khalil Shakir - Comments suggest moderate high ankle. Likely ready Wk 1. Data favors ~20% production dip 1st 4-6 wks

• Chris Godwin - Lean toward missing Wk 1. Drafting Egbuka suggests TB knew recovery would be delayed. Standard = 1 surgery, he had 2

• Brandon Aiyuk - Data favors mid-Oct return. Comments suggest ~Wk 6 target. Typically would see initial ~85% efficiency but WRs avg 6 games to ramp up target volume

• Isaiah Likely - Wk 1 = in play (6 wks post-op), but data suggests Wk 2-4 = most likely. Typically dip 1st 4 wks back

  Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.
  

📊 Poll of the Day

Yesterday’s poll: Which late-round TE do you believe has the best chance at finishing as a top 10 TE?

Interesting. I get the love but I’m a bit surprised by how much consensus there was on Chig Okonkwo, likely due to his recent usage with the starters. Personally I am very bullish on this range and often ending my best ball drafts with 2 of these TEs. For redraft, I’m either taking an elite top-2 TE or waiting until the Goedert/Kraft/Kincaid/Ferguson tier.

We had a blast with last week’s FastDraft Draft Party, including a bunch of prizes going to FFin60 readers. I’m thinking we run it back next week over on FFPC with their scheduled best ball drafts.

Let me know what day and time works best for you all to hopefully join!