🧠 Strategy Session: Impact of “Unstackable QBs”

Imagine you're in a draft deciding between Chris Olave and Rome Odunze. No strong lean, so you check rankings and ADP — they're neck and neck.

Most people will take Odunze. Why? Because it opens the door to a Caleb Williams stack. That logic gets repeated across thousands of drafts, and the result? Odunze’s ADP rises, Olave’s falls.

But here's the catch: ADP impacts rankings. So what started as a small stack preference snowballs into Olave appearing to be the significantly lesser option, even though the original difference had nothing to do with projection. And this keeps getting repeated as rankings adjust and Olave is compared to a new WR.

We’re seeing a real trend: WRs and TEs tethered to “unstackable QBs” are slipping. And it’s not just poor QB play as that’s already baked into the projection. It’s that these WRs don’t fit neatly into the stacking plans of savvy drafters, so they get pushed down.

If tomorrow, Tyler Shough was named the Saints starter, Olave would feel like a better click. Not because he’d be more productive — but because he’s now stackable.

And that’s where I believe sharp drafters can find edge: exploiting where stack logic is warping value. Presenting us with a group of WRs and TEs that are being undervalued, but solid picks when you have alternative stack plans available. Already drafted an elite QB and not needing someone like Caleb? Maybe that’s the time you rather draft Olave and look for a stackable QB for another pass catcher later.

Here are the players I believe are most impacted by the ‘unstackable QBs’

• Cleveland: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

• New Orleans: Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed

🔁 In Case You Missed It

• Want to get real-time feedback on your best ball drafts? Or rate others’ drafts? Earlier this week a fun best ball community tool launched called DraftrPass that allows you to do just that.

📊 Poll of the Day

A third of you have zero faith in Darren Waller. With more than half believing he’ll finish outside the top 25 (which would be ADP 187 Mason Taylor). And not sure I blame you given all the concerns discussed yesterday.

I believe the market though may be more bullish as I expect his ADP to settle in the 170s. I’ll hold off until we get a bit more info in August as wouldn’t expect his ADP to rise substantially from there.