📝 News & Notes

• Brandon Aiyuk estimated to have a week 6 return [Matt Barrows]

  My take: Was this injury timeline baked into his current price? Yes. But will it still likely fall more? Also, yes. I have not been drafting much of him because I’ve expected his ADP to keep dropping but pretty soon will be packing my bags.

• Matthew Stafford misses practice despite expectation he’d participate [Sarah Barshop]

  My take: Just a day after Stafford reportedly threw 60 passes and felt really good, this unexpected setback is alarming. My current lean is Stafford will still be ready week 1 but I’ve accepted even if that is the case, there is heightened risk of missing games this season. Which is rather unfortunate when I’d like to be overweight on both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. You can also see all the relevant Coachspeak in this tweet.

🔍 ADP Tracker

📈 Risers

• Keenan Allen - He has moved into the 13th round, with expectation he likely settles into the 11th or 12th. I am still taking him with Justin Herbert stacks but otherwise fading as the majority of drafters will have gotten him near the final rounds. Would rather take someone like Doubs with a similar ADP/rank but the field isn’t sitting on 5 rounds of value.

• TreVeyon Henderson - One special teams touchdown and he climbs a half a round. Not really sure anything on the thesis has changed in the past week other than perhaps people have more confidence in his skillset? He was a common target of mine at the end of the fifth but it’s difficult to take him above some very strong WRs in this range.

• Tank Bigsby - Bigsby has had the steady drumbeat all preseason however, I expect this rise to reverse after Etienne’s heavy usage with the starters. If Bigsby isn’t the primary runner, he is now likely being overdrafted by multiple rounds. I expect we’ll see him as a top faller next week. I’d rather have Etienne (primary back favorite + pass-catcher) or Tuten (explosive rookie with upside).

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt - FFin60 readers are no stranger to Croskey-Merritt and his push up the Commanders’ depth chart. Add in that he has only been drafted in around 29% of BBM drafts and he continues to be a great late-round RB pick for best ball.

📉 Fallers

• Rashee Rice - Rice’s ADP has been quite the roller coaster as people realize he’s going to get suspended, forget he’s going to be suspended, and then realize it again. I still expect him to fall a bit more but have started drafting him if he falls to the fifth round. Expecting him to have massive upside when on the field.

• Quinshon Judkins, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris - Remember when I cautioned trying to catch the falling knife? Well, I think it’s still falling. Personally, I’m not drafting any of these guys unless it’s a multi-round discount.

• Tre Harris & Quentin Johnston - It’s difficult to know what the passing game will look like after Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen. My lean is Quentin Johnston will get first shot at playing outside but the leash is going to be small with Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith nipping at his heels. Both Harris and Johnston need to fall further before I’d make either a target.

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📊 Poll of the Day

Yesterday’s poll: What would you have done with my Round 7 pick?

Consensus on grabbing the Burrow value with an RB second. Often when I start a draft RB-RB, I’m usually looking to wait longer to grab my next RB so in this situation, I likely would have taken Deebo (even though it doesn’t help me with a future stack option).