📝 News & Notes

Dolphins say “everything is on the table” regarding a potential QB change [Barry Jackson]
My take: This is likely only relevant for best ball and superflex as Monday night was the first time in 5 games Tua managed to surpass 200 passing yards. Zach Wilson would be next QB up and likely a wash for all skill players with a ++ matchup vs the Bengals in Week 16.

Sean McVay hinting towards a possibility that Davante Adams could still play Thursday [Stu Jackson]
My take: This is likely gameplay by McVay as Adams has also been declared week-to-week. I’d put it at extremely unlikely he plays this week with a chance at Week 17.

Lamar Jackson says he’s feeling better, with his play on the field showing it [ESPN]
My take: While I want to believe it, it’s still hard to ignore the struggles and a difficult Week 16 matchup vs the Patriots. In my home league, I have a difficult decision in the semifinals between playing Lamar or Jacoby Brissett vs. Atlanta.

📝 The Pain of the Best Ball Playoffs

The math is unforgiving, but it's the emotional reality that really stings. You spend all summer drafting, watching the streams, following the injuries and practice reports, updating your ranks, and you are still only expected to make the finals once every six years. All those hopes and built up equity with zero in-season control, only to watch them evaporate in a single week.

The best we can hope for is learning from our results, refining our process, and hopping back on the horse that violently kicked us off.

For me, I’m still alive with 6 teams in the semifinals but even that only leaves me a 32% chance of making the finals given random chance. You all probably wouldn’t be surprised to hear that my most owned RB of my advancing teams, on 3 of the 6, is the “Herzig’s Best Ball Nugget’ player I wrote about in the August 14th FFin60: Travis Etienne. And each of those advancing drafts was done in the week or two after that email.

There is obviously a level of good fortune with the Travis Etienne run-out but the thesis below held true. Travis Etienne started the year as the primary RB, held onto it, and benefited from the high-value RB role in the Liam Coen offense.

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📊 Poll of the Day

Yesterday’s poll: How would you rate how much luck was on your side in fantasy football this year?

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