📝 News & Notes

• Luther Burden III had his first official practice of camp Monday, exclusively doing individual drills [CHSN]

  My take: Burden just being at practice is a major step in the right direction for the rookie. The Bears in general have had a rough first week at camp as they try to learn Ben Johnson’s system but as someone bullish on Burden, I’m glad his camp absence wasn’t more than a week. Time for him and Caleb to form that connection.

• Courtland Sutton signs a 4 year, $92 million contract [Tom Pelissero]

  My take: While a holdout was unlikely, this removes any concern for a mid-season trade or lingering phantom injury hurting Sutton’s season. This contract will also be an interesting data point for the Terry McLaurin contract negotiations, with rumors he is seeking $33 million AAV, quite a bit more than Sutton’s $23 million

• Bhayshul Tuten is day-to-day with a hamstring injury

  My take: According to The Coachspeak Index, HC Liam Coen when asked if it’s expected to be long-term, actually said “no, no, no, no, no, no.” I think we can take his word but 4th round rookies cannot afford to miss much time during this time of year so hopefully he’ll get back out there quickly. Tuten remains one of my favorite RB sleepers this year and hopefully this will give us more of a discount.

• Dalton Kincaid misses practice due to knee soreness [Lance Lysowski]

  My take: I normally won’t include a news & note on a player who just misses a practice but Kincaid has had a history of knee issues including being spotted this offseason with a knee brace. Kincaid is a TE target of mine given his price and upside but my concern is rising to a 3 out of 10 with this lingering injury.

🔍 ADP Tracker

📈 Risers

• Omarion Hampton - Every day that Najee doesn’t practice, and we get another mysterious comment such as “we’re going to be cautious and precautious,” Hampton will continue to rise. Entered the late 3rd and according to you all, his rise could go all the way up to late 2nd.

• Elijah Arroyo - Arroyo has gone from mostly undrafted (32% according to ETR estimates) to a late-round darling and I’m continuing to buy. The uniqueness is nice but the potential for a breakout is there. Here’s what HC Macdonald recently said: “We’re gonna put a lot of pressure on him, and we expect a lot out of him. He’s got a great opportunity in front of him.” [You can find this and more quotes from The Coachspeak Index]

• Nick Chubb - I did not expect to be drafting 29-year old Nick Chubb coming off an inefficient season post-ACL injury. But as you read in yesterday’s newsletter, I am very concerned about Mixon. I am buying at this price but will hold off until after today’s poll to give my thoughts on how high I’d draft him.

• Emeka Egbuka - There are only 2 spots between Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka and I expect the flippening to happen in the next day or two. I want to stay overweight the Bucs pass catchers in general so will continue to be targeting both.

📉 Fallers

• Justin Jefferson & Joe Mixon - See 7/28 newsletter for thoughts on these two falling

• Chris Godwin - This fall is the result of the combination of both the updated injury news of the second surgery and the praise of Egbuka by Baker and beat reporters. I think Godwin keeps falling to the 80s where I’ll continue buying because I can still see a world he returns back to last year’s WR1 form.

• Quinshon Judkins and Najee Harris - Each dropped 10 spots in the past week and without any positive news from either camp, I expect them to keep slipping. Don’t believe I’ve drafted either in a bit as the risk doesn’t match the upside.

📊 Poll of the Day

You all surprised me a bit with the responses to yesterday’s 49ers poll. It is clear the injuries and doubt surrounding both Jennings and Aiyuk are scaring drafters. These responses are likely a decent barometer for what may happen to each of these players’ ADP over the next week or two.