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📝 News & Notes

49ers “hopeful” Brandon Aiyuk will return this season [Matt Maiocco]
My take: That’s nice. And I’m “hopeful” my full head of hair will simply grow back. But just as GM John Lynch said, “realistic, I’m not sure.” I’d be surprised if we see Brandon Aiyuk play another snap in San Francisco, and shocked if he made any fantasy impact this year.

📉 The Lamar Jackson Fantasy Collapse: A Three-Week Spiral

With the trade deadline for most leagues passing, the Wednesday Buy/Sell/Hold column will be repositioned. For this week, it’ll be an extension of a tweet I put out over the weekend.

Lamar Jackson's fantasy managers are experiencing unprecedented disappointment from the two-time MVP. Over the last three weeks, Jackson has posted QB29, QB25, and QB27, stunningly poor performance for a player who entered the season as arguably the QB1. This begs the question why is this is happening and more importantly, should we expect it to continue?

The easy answer is that his fantasy stats are down because he is not fully healthy. Jackson has been on the injury report for three consecutive weeks with knee, ankle, and toe injuries, after missing three games earlier with a hamstring strain. Jackson has said he’s fully healthy but tape bros aren’t convinced and note his unwillingness to turn up field as a sign of a lingering injury. The irony is despite his rushing volume down, his EPA per rush is at its highest of the last three years. But if we just isolate his fantasy rushing stats, those only account for 6.3 fantasy points per game the last two years.

As for his passing, some data that helps tell the picture:
- Jackson’s completion percentage the last three games is down to 55%, a bit lower than his 60% completion percentage prior to that and ten percentage points down from his 65% career average
- Jackson is being pressured on 44.6% of dropbacks, the highest of the last four years
- Jackson is averaging 174 passing yards, 40 yards below his season average, with a 9.03 average depth of target, nearly identical to last year and higher than the two previous years

So he’s getting pressured more often, completing fewer passes, and perhaps forced to throw more downfield due to longer down and distances, all with relatively little success. And whether or not his injuries are impacting him, his rushing volume is down despite his EPA per rush being up could signal that teams are not as concerned with him as a rusher given his injuries.

My inclination is that the injury is playing a larger role than the Ravens are admitting but the struggles are not all attributable just to that. The offense lacks the multi-faceted explosiveness we have seen in year’s past and overall efficiency has taken a decline. Going against the Browns with poor weather can defeat any QB and last week’s stats vs. the Bengals would look a bit different if Likely didn’t fumble at the one or Zay Flowers’ 36-yard TD wasn’t called back.

None of that excuses the poor performance but it gives me optimism he’s still worth starting, especially with friendly matchups the next two weeks. And for most people, what other options do we really have.

📊 Poll of the Day

Yesterday’s poll: Pick your RB for the fantasy playoffs

Interesting how few people are picking JT…

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