📝 News & Notes

• The implosion risk on Tyreek Hill is starting to concern me enough to dock him out of the second round. Everything about his recent activity gives off “in it for me, not we” vibes

  1) Quit on his team last year
  2) Still unresolved tension between him and Tua [David Furones]
  3) Publicly calling out Achane for not being good for third-and-short [FinsXtra]
  4) Says it’s very important to show up for team stretches on time, only to show up late two days later [ProFootballTalk]

• Isaac Guerendo is expected to miss “a few weeks” with a shoulder injury [Adam Schefter]

  My take: This opens the door for 4th round rookie Jordan James as he competes for the back-up job to CMC. My current lean is Guerendo provides a explosiveness the 49ers could want to mix in even with CMC healthy, but if there were to be an injury, either could take the job. I would expect Guerendo to get the first shot but this injury definitely gives James a fighting chance.

• Bucky Irving “is viewed by people in the building as special enough to warrant a high-volume RB1 role…that includes pass catching work” [ESPN]

  My take: This is what you want to hear for a RB being drafted at the 2/3 turn. We know Irving has the talent — the question is: can he sustain the role he ended 2024 with, or will they revert back to incorporating more Rachaad White? I personally prefer Irving among the Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Chase Brown tier because the only thing preventing him from being an elite fantasy RB is the workload.

🔍 ADP Tracker

📈 Risers

• Tank Bigsby - Tank Bigsby has emerged as the favorite for carries in Jacksonville, albeit likely a three or four headed backfield. He’s unlikely to catch many passes but can still surpass his current ADP with efficiency and touchdowns

• Woody Marks - With Joe Mixon indefinitely out and Nick Chubb having potentially lost his juice, the rookie the Texans traded next year’s third rounder to move up for is a viable candidate for taking over that backfield. Not a slam dunk but a clear target of mine at current price.

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt - The Commanders have been “intrigued,” “very excited,” and labeled Croskey-Merritt an “A running back.” 7th round rookies often don’t even make the team but the drumbeat has been solid and the competition ahead of him aren’t locked into their roles. You might have seen I took him in the 18th round of a Big Dog with Davis Mattek a week and a half ago.

• Anthony Richardson - My current lean is Anthony Richardson is 55-45 to be the Week 1 starter and the over/under for number of games this year would be 9. Not a great case when starting QBs are going after him but Richardson is a different beast who has overall QB1 upside every time he starts a game. Drafting him is often dependent upon what the rest of your build and risk appetite are for that team.

📉 Fallers

• Quinshon Judkins, Joe Mixon, and Najee Harris - All three are continuing to fall as a result of their previously discussed situations. All three have more room to fall before I am drafting them.

• Marshawn Lloyd - Lloyd’s fall is expected given the recent injury (particularly after being deemed an injury prone player) but what’s noteworthy is not the 16 spot drop, but that he is rarely being drafted which adds a unique value if this injury is minor. There are currently other late-round RBs I prefer more but I’ll be ready to sprinkle in Lloyd if he gets through this injury.

📊 Poll of the Day

Yesterday’s poll: Which QB-TE stack is your favorite?

You all just trying to butter me up with that Caleb-Colston duo leading the way. McCarthy + Hockenson is also one I like at cost before this groin injury that we’re monitoring.