📝 News & Notes

Broncos say JK Dobbins could return for AFC Championship game
My take: This has potential fantasy implications for those building around the Broncos advancing to the Super Bowl but I’ll personally be assuming most likely scenarion is he doesn’t play this year, and if he does, it’d be in a likely minor RB role with Harvey as the lead.

Omarion Hampton misses practice, as he is “working through it” and “doing everything he can” for his ankle.
My take: This is rather concerning after not practicing or playing last week. Hampton can no longer be trusted as a first-round advance rate piece.

Ricky Pearsall missed Wednesday’s practice after not practicing at all last week
My take: PCL sprains can be nasty and I wouldn’t be surprised if this keeps Pearsall out another game. This leaves a major gap in the 49ers offense as Pearsall is the field stretch and downfield threat that cannot be easily replaced.

Bucs say Todd Bowles will remain the HC
My take: This is letting fear of change, fear of unknown, fear of failure drive their decision which is just so bad. But bad teams stay bad. Shame.

📺️ FFPC Playoff Challenge

The FFPC contests are about halfway full which opens the door to potential overlay with just a couple days ‘til the playoffs start. New users can still join either and get $25 back with sign-up code FFin60.

One final strategy I want to provide is picking one unlikely outcome and building a like narrative around that. Because if the one outcome is so unlikely it allows you to immediately get unique, and then you can make correlated decisions based off that narrative, while mostly selecting the highly projected chalk plays.

One example is you say that the Seahawks (the SB favorites) are going to lose the first round. So you hard fade them. The team that is most likely to beat them in the first round would be the Rams, which means the Rams beat the Panthers and both the Packers and 49ers lost. In this lineup, you would not be selecting any Seahawks or Panthers, and you could choose low scoring positions like George Kittle on SF and Packers DST vs the Bears.

Through avoiding the Seahawks and specifically JSN, and correctly fading other losing teams such as avoiding using CMC, you set yourself up to have the most valuable positions collecting points in multiple games. Is this strategy guaranteed to win even when the Seahawks lose the first round? Of course not. But it definitely has a solid chance of making noise if things fall correctly.

If you want additional content around this topic, I highly recommend the two recent Ship Chasing episodes on identifying the chalk plays and projected ownership percentages.

📊 Poll of the Day

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