📝 Monday Mega Edition: Week 1 Takeaways

First off, there is just way too much information to all be digested in just 60 seconds. So I’ve tried to focus on the most important takeaways and you can skim based off players or teams you care about.

LAC - Justin Herbert looked like an MVP candidate, with the Chargers Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) at 15.2% (the previous two years were -1.5% and 0.7%). WR room pretty straightforward with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston as the top 2, with Keenan Allen mostly playing but occasionally swapping out. Omarion Hampton played 80% of the snaps but tbd on how they continue to incorporate Najee Harris.

KC - Hollywood Brown emerges as the #1 WR after Xavier Worthy’s injury (and Rashee Rice suspended). Isaiah Pacheco led the backfield but only with 51% of the snaps. He will be difficult to start given how often the Chiefs throw in the red zone and his minimal pass catching role.

TB - Emeka Egbuka plays more snaps than any other WR, going 4/67/2. Bucky Irving was in on 76% of the offensive snaps (4th highest of RBs). Expecting stronger days from this offense going forward.

ATL - Kyle Pitts usage very strong (78%, last four games sub 50%). Bijan Robinson’s high usage mirrored how he finished last year (83% of snaps). Offense is very light on WRs with Darnell Mooney missing the game and London likely missing next week.

CIN - Big ol’ pile of yuck. Only 7 offensive yards the second half. But no need to panic on your studs. No priors need altering other than Mike Gesicki played the fewest snaps of the three TEs. Probably not startable unless that changes or an injury to Tee Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase.

CLE - Dylan Sampson played fewer snaps than Jerome Ford but led the backfield in carries (12-6) and targets (8-1). TBD on if Quinshon Judkins returns soon but the team clearly trusts Sampson. Rookie Harold Fannin led the team in targets going 7/63/0. David Njoku played more snaps but only five targets. Think they’ll both be back-end TE options so long as Joe Flacco is QB.

IND - Jonathan Taylor was on track to play every snap before it became a blowout. DJ Giddens remains an elite handcuff and great bench stash. Tyler Warren led the team in targets and becomes a startable TE1. Josh Downs getting the Jayden Reed treatment, only playing in 3-WR sets (48% of snaps). Michael Pittman the WR1 showing immediate rapport with Daniel Jones.

MIA - Mike McDaniel’s seat is on fire after this abysmal performance. The offense was bad and the targets were spread out which together make a nightmare for fantasy. De’Von Achane the one bright spot playing 72% of the snaps and having a 13% target share.

LV - Ashton Jeanty had elite usage (86%). Tre Tucker was the clear WR2 alongside Jakobi Meyers, with them both playing 90% of the snaps. Brock Bowers snap share was questionable prior to his injury, but his usage on those snaps was impressive (8 targets on 25 routes).

NE - Rhamondre Stevenson was the starting RB playing on all types of downs, with TreVeyon Henderson playing a change-of-pace role. Henderson is too good to not play more but it might take some time. They used a WR rotation without any one WR shining (and 11 total players having at least one target). This may be a frustrating team for fantasy until usage condenses.

ARI - James Conner is the primary back but Trey Benson has emerged as the third-down back. This won’t impact Conner substantially as Emari Demarcado had this job previously but strengthens Benson’s case for being one of the top handcuffs if Conner got injured. Marvin Harrison Jr. the clear WR1, with WR2 duties split between Michael Wilson and Zay Jones (neither very fantasy relevant). Trey McBride remained Kyler Murray’s #1 target.

NO - Despite questionable QB play, this can be a fun fantasy team with targets tightly concentrated between the top 2 WRs (Chris Olave - 13, Rashid Shaheed - 9) and their TE (Juwan Johnson - 11). Alvin Kamara will likely see more of those targets going forward to go with his command of the backfield (79% of the snaps).

PIT - The backfield usage was quite surprising. Jaylen Warren played the Najee Harris role and Kenneth Gainwell played the Jaylen Warren role. They had a near even split in the backfield. Gainwell is likely a waiver target. Calvin Austin has won the WR2 role and has fantasy relevance in deep leagues.

NYJ - Breece Hall’s usage was slightly down from last year but he looked electric, going 19/107/0 on the ground and 2/38 in the air. If the Jets remain stubborn with his usage, he could be a boom-or-bust RB. Justin Fields only had 22 pass attempts, but 9 went to Garrett Wilson (41% target rate). Will likely be lowest passing team in the league.

WAS - Chris Rodriguez was a healthy scratch, paving the way for 7th-round rookie Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt to lead the backfield. While it’s still up in the air how valuable of a role that will be, his 10/82/1 stat line only strengthens his case. Slow game for Terry McLaurin but that’s to be expected given his minimal preseason action.

NYG - Could this have been Russell Wilson’s only game as the starter? Brian Daboll is not committing to him being the Week 2 starter. Tyrone Tracy dominated the backfield (74% of the snaps) though I expect Cam Skattebo to slowly eat into that.

JAX - Travis Etienne is the RB1 in this backfield, going 16/143/0 and 3 receptions for 13 yards on 61% of the snaps. While we do not know how this will change each week, Travis Hunter played 96% of the 3-WR snaps (leading the team in targets with 8). Brian Thomas Jr.’s usage hints to him maintaining his status as the team’s #1 WR.

CAR - The entire offense was pretty ugly with Bryce Young looking more like rookie year Bryce. Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle split the backfield (67% to 34%), with Hubbard getting the majority of the two-minute drill. This is a strong positive for Hubbard’s season long prospects if it continues.

DEN - This has the looks of a frustrating three-headed backfield, with J.K. Dobbins being the lead but only playing 53% of the snaps. Courtland Sutton remains the only WR we can trust (95% of snaps), with Troy Franklin second of the WRs (59%).

TEN - With Tyjae Spears hurt, this is Tony Pollard’s backfield. Rookie Elic Ayomanor only finished with 2 receptions for 13 yards but was second in snaps and targets. Worthwhile stash in deeper league.

SF - George Kittle got hurt, Jauan Jennings got hurt, and Christian McCaffrey had 31 touches. CMC is likely still the most valuable fantasy asset when healthy. Important to monitor these injuries.

SEA - Jaxon Smith-Njigba had an insane 57% target share (13/23) as the rest of the team combined for 26 receiving yards. This backfield may be frustrating as it looks like a true committee. Zach Charbonnet had the higher snap share while the usage was nearly identical.

GB - The WR rotation is a nightmare for fantasy - Romeo Doubs (71%), Matthew Golden (48%), Dontayvion Wicks (46%), and Jayden Reed (38%).

DET - The Lions struggled in their first game without Ben Johnson, with a low ADOT and half of Goff’s targets going to the RB (Jahmyr Gibbs) and TE ( Sam LaPorta). Promising for Gibbs is he did see a larger workload split with David Montgomery than past years. Jameson Williams also sees an increased role from last year as he shifts into an every down WR.

LAR - Only Kyren Williams and Blake Corum saw the backfield, with Corum slightly increasing his role from last year. Puka Nacua will be an injury to monitor - if he is unable to go, Jordan Whittington will be a waiver wire target.

HOU - Nick Chubb led the backfield with 51% of the snaps but not sure you want to be starting any of these RBs. Rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel were the 4th and 5th WRs in snap share though the longer Christian Kirk stays out, the higher chance they can increase their roles. The primary fantasy challenge for this entire team is the poor offensive line.

If you want more detailed information on each game, or the full breakdown from the late night SNF game, I highly recommend Nathan Jahnke’s weekly article.

⚕️ Injury Corner w/ Deepak Chona

Drake London - Video suggests AC sprain. Avg = 1-2 wks but severity can vary. If he logs 2+ LPs this wk, data will favor playing Wk 2

Xavier Worthy - W/o surgery, avg return = 3 wks. 50% re-injury risk (would mean season over)

George Kittle - Avg = 2-3 wks. MRI tom. Age 31 + his soft tissue history predicts slower return. Mild performance dip upon return, but re-injury risk can be high (~20+%)

Brock Bowers - Video suggests mild MCL sprain. Avg = 1-2 wks but he was moving relatively well on sideline. Comments similarly suggest mild severity. Lean toward return Wk 2 w/o dip

Jauan Jennings - Shoulder. Left game. MRI tom. Limited info, will update

Evan Engram - Calf. Avg = 2 wks but severity TBD. Re-injury = primary concern

Jaylen Waddle - Briefly left w/shoulder. Returned. Video suggests mild AC. Likely no dip

Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.

📊 Poll of the Day

Last Friday’s poll: Which Week 1 game will have the most fantasy goodness?

TB @ ATL disappointed but the same cannot be said for the BAL @ BUF game. 81 total points with the game coming down to a game-winning FG in the final seconds. Both QBs, both starting RBs, and both teams’ #1 WRs outperformed their expectations.