📝 Week 4 Key Takeaways

MIN - With Jordan Addison’s return, we get a little clarity into the pass catchers. Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson played nearly every offensive snap, with Jefferson and Addison combining for 49% of the targets (11 and 9 respectively). Nailor was the #3 WR playing 63% with Thielen playing only 16%. Jordan Mason only played 62% of the snaps as Zavier Scott played more in the second half while the Vikings were in catch-up mode.

PIT - Jaylen Warren was a late scratch and Kenneth Gainwell capitalized as the lead back, playing 77% of the snaps, rushing 19/99/2 with a 6/35/0 receiving line. Most likely we will see Jaylen Warren return to his pre-injury role but there is a chance this strong performance by Gainwell has earned him more playing time. Still think Jaylen Warren is a buy low, especially if you can get him even cheaper after this week.

WAS - No Jayden Daniels and no Terry McLaurin in this week’s game as Marcus Mariota only had 27 attempts. Not much to learn from the passing game effort going forward. As for the RBs, Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. had a near even split, both with 35% of the offensive snaps, 7 carries, and similar routes run.

ATL - Drake London led the team with a 38% target share, going 8/110/1. Darnell Mooney suffered a hamstring injury and missed the second half, giving way for Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson to tie for the second most targets on the team (5). Bijan continued his extremely valuable role and remains an elite play in all formats, even with Tyler Allgeier playing the milk-the-clock role.

NO - Brandin Cooks emerged as an every down WR, even playing more snaps than Chris Olave. This downgraded Rashid Shaheed to only 70% of the offensive snaps. Alvin Kamara led the backfield both in the rushing and passing game, but Kendre Miller has continued to increase his snaps and role each week. We’re getting closer to this backfield looking like the old Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara splits (Kendre TD highlight).

BUF - Buffalo used 6 WRs, 3 TEs, and 4 HB/FBs in a closer than expected game vs New Orleans. James Cook played 73% of the offensive snaps, his highest of the year. Keon Coleman led the WRs, also playing 73% of the snaps, though no one saw more than 5 targets. Dalton Kincaid is a sell-high candidate, scoring his third touchdown despite playing only 37% of the snaps.

CLE - Cedric Tillman suffered a hamstring injury after playing just 15 snaps, elevating Isaiah Bond into the #2 WR position and second on the team in targets (behind Jerry Jeudy). Njoku and Fannin finished with a similar snap count and routes run, but Fannin dominated the targets with 6 compared to Njoku’s 2. Judkins remains the clear RB1 in this offense with Jerome Ford playing a complementary role.

DET - Difficult match-up but the offense still played strong, with similar usage to what we’ve seen the first three weeks. David Montgomery continues to be a sell-high candidate if you can find a buyer, as he only played 33% of the offensive snaps. And not that there was any question, but Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be #good, going 7/70/2 on just 7 targets.

TEN - The offense remains a mess and overall an avoid if possible for fantasy as they get shutout by the Texans.

HOU - The big story in Houston was the breakout of Woody Marks, as he led the team in RB snaps, routes run, targets, and carries. He turned that into a nice 17/69/1 on the ground and 4/50/1 in the air. Marks was on the waiver wire column the last two weeks though if he’s still available, he’ll potentially be the most expensive add this week. Dalton Schultz led the team with 6 targets as the strong WR core feels underutilized.

CAR - Despite the injury, Tetairoa looked solid (4 for 62 yds) leading the team in snaps, routes run, and targets. Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle shared the backfield, with similar work on the ground but Hubbard leading 22-13 in routes run and 3-1 in targets. TE Tommy Tremble played 75% of the offensive snaps with Ja’Tavion Sanders missing and is a match-up dependent streamer until Sanders is back healthy.

NE - Mike Vrabel was truthful in saying Rhamondre Stevenson wouldn’t be punished for his fumble woes, as he led the backfield with 57% of the offensive snaps compared to 31% for TreVeyon Henderson. The Patriots continue to mix up their WRs with no one playing higher than 70% of the snaps (Stefon Diggs played 63% as he led in targets and goes 6 for 101 yards).

LAC - Omarion Hampton looked like a first round draft pick (fun highlight!), playing 89% of the snaps and having impressive stat lines of 12/128/1 on the ground and 5/37 in the air. The Ladd McConkey struggles continue as he was 3rd on the team in targets with 6, catching only one for 11 yards. Quentin Johnston stole the show going 8/98/1 on 13 targets.

NYG - Malik Nabers suffered what appeared to be a torn ACL, leaving this team with Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton as the primary WR options for Jaxson Dart, alongside TE Theo Johnson who played 70% of the snaps and scored his first TD of the year. The loss of Nabers is a major hit to Dart’s fantasy prospects and while Slayton is likely to be the biggest beneficiary, the entire offense takes a hit. Only two RBs were active for this game with Skattebo playing 75% of the snaps and about a 21 ratio over Singletary for routes run and carries.

PHI - Eagles are 4-0 but we may have a squeaky wheel narrative in week 5 as AJ Brown does not seem happy after going 2/7/0 on 9 targets. Outside of Dallas Goedert’s 2 TDs, no one had a fantasy performance to write home about.

TB - In Chris Godwin’s first game back, he played 81% of the WR snaps and tied with Egbuka for most targets with 10 (26% target share). Until Mike Evans is back, both WRs will be strong starts. Likely match-up dependent as the Bucs were trailing most the game, Rachaad White played a bit more than usual (42% of the snaps) with slightly more routes run (20-17) than Bucky Irving.

IND - Alec Pierce missed the game while in the concussion protocol, opening the door for Adonai Mitchell to play in 2-WR sets. Mitchell only had 4 targets but had one of the most impressive and boneheaded plays, making a 75 yard catch and run before dropping the ball into the end zone. No change to Jonathan Taylor’s usage, just a moderately difficult match-up and failing to find the end zone.

LAR - Puka Nacua may break records this year if both he and Stafford can stay healthy. He is in the most valuable fantasy role for WRs in the NFL combined with one of the most talented WRs in the league (going 13-170-1). Jordan Whittington has evolved into a near every down role and if Puka Nacua were to get hurt, Whittington could become a top 24 WR. I’d consider adding him off waivers for cheap if you have the spot to stash. Kyren Williams maintained a 68% - 29% snap lead over Blake Corum despite the box score looking closer.

JAC - The Jaguars being 3-1 despite neither Brian Thomas nor Travis Hunter surpassing 60 receiving yards in a game is rather shocking. They continue to lean on Travis Etienne who maintains the clear lead back role going 19/124/1.

SF - Jauan Jennings was a true questionable but continues to play heavy snaps despite limited practice, leading the WRs in snaps (73%). But with CMC having a 30% target share, there wasn’t much to go around elsewhere (no one else had higher than 5 targets). Ricky Pearsall continued to be bothered by his knee injury, limiting his overall playing time.

BAL - Lamar Jackson missed most of the 2nd half with a hamstring injury. Derrick Henry only played 39% of the snaps as he was gamescripted out with the Ravens down double-digits most the game. Isaiah Likely made his first appearance this game, being on the low side of a 46%-56% split with Mark Andrews and nearly even in routes run. The 8-0 targets for Andrews is likely to regress vs Likely going forward.

KC - With Xavier Worthy’s return, we saw a glimpse of the Chiefs explosive passing offense we were hearing about all summer (Mahomes threw for 270 yards and 4 TDs). Tyquan Thornton’s snaps took the biggest hit dropping to #4, which may continue to drop as Worthy gets healthier. And don’t forget Rashee Rice will be returning in a couple weeks.

CHI - With Colston Loveland out due to a hip injury, Cole Kmet ran a route on every Caleb Williams dropback and led the team in targets (25%). Odunze remains Caleb’s #1 WR (4/69/1 on 8 targets) as D’Andre Swift continued his high volume, low efficiency year going 14/38/1 and 4 for 22 in the air.

LV - Ashton Jeanty led the ‘Rookie RB Breakout Week’ with 3 TDs, 21/138/1 on the ground and 2/17/2 in the air. All he needed was the Bears’ porous defense. Not much other fantasy relevance in this game as Bowers and Meyers both disappointed with mediocre stat lines.

If you want more detailed information on each game, including the full breakdown from the Cowboys/Packers clash, I highly recommend Nathan Jahnke’s weekly article which is the data source for much of this information.

⚕️ Injury Corner w/ Deepak Chona

BAL Lamar Jackson - Hamstring. Severity TBD. Avg = 2-3 wks. Bye = Wk 7

MIN JJ McCarthy - Comments imply conservative plan. Suspect could return Wk 5, but lean toward sitting til Wk 7 (Wk 6 = bye)

WAS Jayden Daniels - Playing Wk 5. No dip projected

NYG Malik Nabers - Likely ACL. Non-contact = often cleaner (think Diggs/C Watson as opposed to Aiyuk). Avg = 10 months. Data favors return '26 Wk 1 w/~6 wk ramp up

SF Ricky Pearsall - Knee. Left game. Suspect re-aggravation, likely mild (he was on bike on side). Wk 5 TBD, lean slightly toward playing

WAS Terry McLaurin - No IR. Considered surgery - implies high severity. Avg = 2-3 wks. Wk 5 TBD, data favors sitting

DAL CeeDee Lamb - No IR. Lean Wk 6-7 return, w/data favoring Wk 7 as most likely

TB Chris Godwin - 58 snaps, 10 targets, 3 rec. Avg ramp up = 6 wks. Project strong production last third of season

KC Xavier Worthy - 121 yds. Expect continued strong production. Season-long re-injury risk remains high (~40-50%)

Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.

📊 Poll of the Day

Last Friday’s poll: Who is your favorite Survivor pick for this week?

Getting this type of market information can be helpful when making Survivor picks. Knowing who people are likely to pick can help you determine if it’s better to take the heavy favorite or fade the chalk and take a less popular option.

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