📝 Week 6 Key Takeaways

DEN - The entire offense struggled as no one had more than 42 rushing or receiving yards. Chalk this up to weird international games with better days ahead of the Broncos.

NYJ - Albeit a tough matchup, Justin Fields’ struggles continued as he only threw for 45 passing yards. Not going to make things better that Garrett Wilson suffered a hip or knee injury and will be getting an MRI. Breece Hall couldn’t get anything going but handled 22 of the 24 RB carries.

LAR - Puka Nacua suffered a foot injury with the severity unknown. If he is to miss any time, Jordan Whittington is likely to fill his spot. Whittington led the WRs in snaps today (92%) and that aligns with what we’ve heard/seen from the Rams previously. Tutu Atwell missed the game with an injury and while I expect him to play more if Nacua misses time, Whittington is the favorite for the Puka role.

BAL - The Ravens continue to struggle without Lamar, only scoring 3 points and giving both Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley a chance. Ravens have a bye next week before hopefully having Lamar back for their friendly matchup vs Chicago.

DAL - Most noteworthy fantasy item is with Miles Sanders out for the season, the Cowboys heavily leaned on Javonte Williams as he had his highest snap percentage of the past two years. Ferguson had a TD but finished with only 3 targets on 67% of the offensive snaps. With Lamb coming back soon, Ferguson is a sell-high candidate.

CAR - How do you move a guy with back-to-back 200+ yard games to second team? I don’t know but that’s a decision Carolina will have to make with Chuba Hubbard likely coming back this week. If I had to guess, it would be a true split backfield with some potential for hot-hand distribution. Tetairoa McMillan broke through with his first two career TDs and continues to be my favorite rookie WR for the second half of the year.

ARI - Backfield was pretty evenly split between Bam Knight and Michael Carter. Not expecting to have much more clarity until Trey Benson returns. Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion which puts him in jeopardy of missing at least next week’s game. And of note, Jacoby Brissett threw for 320 yards and 2 TDs today. The last time Kyler Murray did that was 34 games and nearly three years ago (Week 8, 2022).

IND - Colts were at full health and the offense looked as expected. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce in 2-WR sets, Josh Downs joining the field in the slot for 3-WR sets. Tyler Warren played nearly every snap and led the team in targets. And Jonathan Taylor maintained his elite role with 4 targets and 21 carries.

SEA - Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III continued their backfield split, with Charbonnet taking a 60% - 35% lead in snaps, 52% - 28% lead in routes run, and 12-10 lead in carries. This is the first game in four weeks that Charbonnet led in carries which is likely not predictive so much as highlights this backfield will be hard to trust either when both are healthy (though I’d lean Charbonnet given his pass catching and goal line role).

JAX - Without Brenton Strange, the targets concentrated among the WRs and RBs, with BTJ and Travis Hunter leading the way. Hunter also played a career high 58 offensive snaps which could be attributed to the need for a secondary receiving weapon on offense or the recent CB trade.

LAC - With Omarion Hampton on IR, and latest reports his absence may be more than the minimum four games, the Chargers leaned on Kimani Vidal over Hassan Haskins, giving him around a 2-1 advantage in workload. I’d be wary of being too confident in this week’s split as there has been speculation of the Chargers trading for a more established RB or they could still lean on the hot hand going forward. As for WRs, with Quentin Johnston missing this week’s game, Tre Harris led the team in WR snaps at 83%.

MIA - So long as Tua is healthy, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle have high floor - high ceiling combos given their talent and core role in the offense, leading the team in targets. Darren Waller only had 3 targets (while seeing a season high snap share) but stayed hot in the red zone with another TD.

NE - Drake Maye threw for three TDs in the first half before a rather quiet second half, yet no one had more than 5 targets (Diggs and Henry each only had 3). Despite the fumbling issues, Rhamondre Stevenson remained the lead back playing 72% of the offensive snaps and leading in routes run and carries.

NO - Chris Olave maintained his massive target share (38% this week), with Rashid Shaheed (6) and Alvin Kamara (5) the only others to finish with more than 2 targets. Juwan Johnson’s dominant early season role continues to decrease as Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill’s roles increase.

CLE - For the second straight game, Dillon Gabriel continued to show an affinity for his TEs, with Fannin and Njoku combining for 16 of the 48 targets, even accounting for Njoku missing the majority of the 2nd half with an injury. Fannin led the team in receptions and yards going 7/81/0 on 10 targets. The Browns backs struggled on the ground combining for only 65 rushing yards.

PIT - It was an open question what the RB workload split would look like with Jaylen Warren returning from injury after Kenneth Gainwell’s strong international game. Warren led in snaps (53% to 34%), routes run (48% to 39%), and carries (11 to 6), though Gainwell finished with 6 receptions to Warren’s 2.

TEN - Calvin Ridley got hurt, this team is horrible. You should not be playing any Titans.

LV - 2nd round rookie WR Jack Bech looks to have locked down the #3 WR role, with the other alternating WRs only playing two or three snaps each. This team likely isn’t good enough to support multiple WRs but he’s someone to keep an eye on for a second half of the season emergence. Michael Mayer led the team in targets (32% target share) and is a suitable TE fill-in until Brock Bowers returns.

CIN - It took Joe Flacco a half to get settled but he finished throwing for 219 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs. And perhaps most surprisingly only took one sack. He knew the assignment and targeted Ja’Marr Chase 12 times and Tee Higgins 8. Overall a rather solid fantasy performance with much easier opponents ahead.

GB - In back-to-back games, Romeo Doubs continues to be Jordan Love’s top option and leader in targets. Matthew Golden is getting more involved but will still be hard to count on. Josh Jacobs took advantage of the very friendly matchup going 18/93/2 and 5/57 in the air. Keep an eye on this team’s injury situations with Dontayvion Wicks getting hurt and Christian Watson potentially nearing a return.

SF - Jauan Jennings was active today, despite allegedly playing with 5 broken ribs. Kendrick Bourne led the team in targets though not expecting this volume to continue with Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle nearing their returns. CMC maintained his most valuable role in fantasy football combining 17/54/1 with 7/57 in the air.

TB - The Bucs are now missing their top RB and top three WRs to injury after Egbuka left this game early with a hamstring injury. Minimal clarity among this makeshift WR room as Tez Johnson, Kameron Johnson, and Sterling Shepard all played around 50% - 70% of the snaps. Tez Johnson is likely my favorite of the group but can’t imagine him being a high-volume option weighing in at only 142 lbs. Rachaad White’s role is still very valuable without Bucky Irving but Sean Tucker ate into his workload a bit (23% of the offensive snaps).

If you want more detailed information on each game, including the full breakdown from the Bills/Patriots game, I highly recommend Nathan Jahnke’s weekly article which is the data source for much of this information.

⚕️ Injury Corner with Deepak Chona

BAL Lamar Jackson - Likely return Wk 8. Moderate re-injury risk but not overly concerning history

SF Brock Purdy - Avg = 3 wks out. Typically more conservative w/re-aggravations. Lean toward sitting Wk 7, return Wk 8

TB Bucky Irving - Avg shoulder labrum = 2 wks. Avg mid foot = 2-3. Lean toward 3 wks out given dual injuries. Suspect Wk 8 return

LAC Omarion Hampton - IR. 4 wks = most common, but reports suggest more. Uncommon to miss >6 w/o surgery. Lean Wk 13 return

LAR Puka Nacua - Video suggests low ankle vs tendon strain. Wk 7 TBD. Suspect dip + snapcount if active. Suspect back by Wk 9 (Wk 8 = bye)

TB Emeka Egbuka - Hamstring. Avg = 2-3 wks. MRI Mon. Severity TBD. Rapid ramp up post-return

TB Mike Evans - Wk 7-8 return = most likely. WR1s see rapid ramp up in production and targets. HIGH re-injury risk given age + history

TB Chris Godwin - Concern for multi-wk absence. Fibula reported. Unclear what that means, but raises suspicion for aggravation during ramp up

ARI Marvin Harrison Jr. - Concussion. ~50% play Wk 7. Most return by Wk 8. No dip upon return

NYJ Garrett Wilson - MRI pending. Non-ACL. Limited info

DAL CeeDee Lamb - Wk 7 TBD. Lean toward return. ~20% dip + re-injury risk most often seen 1st 2-4 wks back. We'd still start in almost any format

TEN Calvin Ridley - Hamstring. Age 30 predicts increased re-injury risk. Severity TBD. Avg = 2-3 wks

WAS Terry McLaurin - Reports suggest progressing. Not practicing yet. Missing IR suggests Wk 7 = target return. Practice reports = key to projecting workload. Typically only mild dip seen

LV Brock Bowers - Lean toward sitting Wk 7, return Wk 9 (Wk 8 = bye). Production dip projected to last until ~Wk 10

SF George Kittle - Data + reports suggest Wk 7 return. TEs see rapid ramp up (1-2 games) to pre-injury production. ~20% re-injury risk next 6 wks

Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.

📊 Poll of the Day

Last Friday’s poll: Which RB scores the most fantasy points this week?

And the results (PPR scoring):
Breece Hall: 5.9
Rico Dowdle: 33.9
Rachaad White: 17.6
Kyren Williams: 16.7
Quinshon Judkins: 3.6

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