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📝 Week 7 Key Takeaways

LAR - Davante Adams continues to be one of the top red zone threats in the league, scoring 3 TDs on 5 receptions for 35 yards. Without Puka Nacua, the Rams leaned heavily into 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) rather than expecting other WRs to fill Nacua’s role. They should be back to their normal game plan in Week 9 assuming Nacua is back.

JAX - Travis Hunter stepped up as Brian Thomas Jr. struggled with drops and a potential shoulder injury. If BTJ misses time, it would make sense the Jaguars would lean more heavily on Hunter offensively. Etienne’s efficiency is declining from his strong start which may coincide with Bhayshul Tuten’s role increasing. Something to keep an eye on.

NO - Chris Olave’s role this season has been strong but it wasn’t until Week 7 he finally broke out, going 5/98/2 on 7 targets. Kendre Miller suffered a knee injury which bumped Kamara’s usage and gave Devin Neal a chance to mix in. If the injury is serious, my lean is this will lead to more usage for Kamara vs Neal’s role substantially increasing.

CHI - On a day the Bears led all game, they predominantly kept the ball on the ground running on 60% of their plays. D’Andre Swift is still the lead back but it’s clear the team has increased their trust in rookie Kyle Monangai. Colston Loveland led the TEs with a 68% snap share and was second on the team in targets.

MIA - This was the type of performance that gets HCs and GMs fired. Obviously a very difficult opponent but the entire offense looked like a mess. The one thing this offense had going for it was tightly concentrated usage among Waddle, Waller, and Achane but today was rather spread out with Malik Washington leading with 7 targets.

CLE - With the Dolphins having no offense, the Browns could easily control the game on the ground with Quinshon Judkins going 25/84/3. With no Njoku, Harold Fannin Jr. led the team with 5 of 18 targets, with Jeudy the only other one to have more than 2 targets.

LV - No Brock Bowers, no Jakobi Meyers, no points for the Raiders. For those in superflex leagues with Geno Smith, be aware that his leash is getting rather short as he could be benched mid-game at any time. Raiders go on bye next week and it wouldn’t be shocking if Jakobi Meyers is traded before their next game.

KC - All the preseason reports about this offense running through Rashee Rice appeared to be accurate as despite Rashee Rice playing only 41% of the snaps, he led the team with a 27% target share (being targeted on 47% of his routes) going 7/42/2. Rice is likely a WR1 each week going forward. The Chiefs rotated Juju Smith-Schuster, Hollywood Brown, and Tyquan Thornton for the WR3 spot.

PHI - The Eagles rushing game struggled to open up any holes, driving the Eagles to lean on the pass game as Jalen Hurts hit season highs throwing for 326 yards and 3 TDs. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 74% of the team’s targets.

MIN - Jordan Mason played a season high snap rate as Aaron Jones becomes eligible to return off the IR in Week 8. The Vikings big 3 pass catchers combined for 78% of the targets, with Addison leading with 12, Jefferson 10, and Hockenson 9. While Wentz racked up 313 yards on 42 pass attempts (0 TDs, 2 INTs), it was clear this team’s ceiling is quite capped with him at the helm.

CAR - The biggest question going in was how would Carolina use their RBs, with Chuba Hubbard returning after Rico Dowdle’s two explosion games. They went with a drive-by-drive rotation, with Hubbard getting the start but Dowdle having the more impressive day. Xavier Legette also had his name called often, going 9/92/1 on 11 targets (41% target share).

NYJ - Justin Fields continued to struggle, getting benched for the 2nd half. Despite his strong weekly projections, he’ll be a risky start each week knowing a bad first half could lead to him missing out those high value, 4th quarter garbage points. The backfield split was a bit wonky (near even split for Breece Hall and Isaiah Davis) because Hall missed some time due to an injury and game script dictated more Davis usage.

NE - Those who were hoping TreVeyon Henderson’s role would increase will not be happy to learn even in a blowout, Stevenson’s role actually increased to a 77% snap share. Drake Maye has continued his strong sophomore season, breaking the Patriots completion percentage record going 21/23 for 222 yards and 2 TDs. Diggs led the pass catchers with a nice 7/69 on 7 targets.

TEN - nope nope nope

NYG - Wan’Dale Robinson continues to be the #1 target of Dart, going 6/95/0 on 10 targets (36% target share). Theo Johnson pushed forward on his strong season as this week’s #2 target, going 3/66/1 on 7 targets. Skattebo led the backfield with a near 2:1 split over Tyrone Tracy Jr.

DEN - With the Broncos trailing the entire game, Bo Nix had a season high 50 passing attempts, spreading the ball around primarily to Courtland Sutton (9 targets), Troy Franklin (10), Evan Engram (7), and Marvin Mims Jr. (7). Because of the game script, the backfield was a true three-headed monster as Dobbins led the way with a 50% snaps share and Tyler Badie playing more snaps than RJ Harvey.

IND - The Colts are now 6-1 and averaging 33 points a game. Jonathan Taylor furthered his campaign for OPOY rushing 16 times for 94 yards and 3 TDs, in addition to 3/38 in the air. Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman also had respectable games, each catching one of Daniel Jones’ two passing TDs.

LAC - Playing from behind most the game, Justin Herbert was slinging it most the day, finishing with 420 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs on 55 throws. That type of volume can support multiple pass catchers, including: Ladd McConkey - 9/67/0 on 15 targets, Keenan Allen - 11/119/1 on 14 targets, and rookie TE Oronde Gadsden II - 7/164/1 on 9 targets. Gadsden has shown his success was not just dependent upon Johnston being out. He’ll be a top waiver wire target this week.

GB - The Packers got the W but looked rather sloppy as a unit. The team combined for only 273 total offensive yards (24% lower than their season average of 360 yards per game). Josh Jacobs was a game-time decision and accordingly only played 55% of the snaps, though still managing 58 yards and two TDs. The passing game continued to run through Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft, combining for 62% of the targets.

ARI - Trey McBride might be the most valuable fantasy asset if Jacoby Brissett were the QB all year, responsible for McBride’s 10/74/2 stat line on 13 targets. The backfield snaps were still split between Knight and Carter, though Knight had the hotter hand and twice the carries.

WAS - Jayden Daniels went down with what appeared to be a hamstring injury, which may have him out for a few weeks. The Commanders were already without Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and Noah Brown, leading to the ball being spread around fairly evenly among the replacement WR corps. This game can mostly be thrown out given all the injuries.

DAL - CeeDee Lamb made his return as a near full-time WR, leading the way with a 5/110/1 stat line on 7 targets. The Cowboys are not always going to put up 44 points but this week even with Lamb back, they were able to still have strong performances from George Pickens (4/82/0) and Jake Ferguson (7/29/2).

If you want more detailed information on each game, including the full breakdown from the Bills/Patriots game, I highly recommend Nathan Jahnke’s weekly article which is the data source for much of this information.

⚕️ Injury Corner with Deepak Chona

WAS Jayden Daniels - Video suggested moderate hamstring. Reassuring reaction after. Avg = 2-3 wks. Prior management suggests WAS will be conservative

CAR Bryce Young - Video suggests mild high ankle. Difficulty bearing weight + walking boot. Most would miss Wk 8

SF Brock Purdy - Trending toward Wk 8 return

NO Kendre Miller - Comments suggest real concern. Also has prior history. Suspect missed time coming. MRI likely Mon

JAX Brian Thomas - Video suggested mild mechanism. Good chance for return post-bye

MIA Jaylen Waddle - Left game after hard hit. Video suggests contusion. Game was out of hand. Suspect return next game

NYJ Garrett Wilson - Doubtful Wk 7 typically = return next wk. Avg 2 wks out. Wk 9 bye, so practice report = key

SF Ricky Pearsall - Avoiding IR suggests initial plan for <4 games out. Has missed 3. Potential return Wk 8

WAS Deebo Samuel - High risk to miss Wk 8. Suspect aggravated heel bruise

TEN Calvin Ridley - Avg = 2-3 wks. Age 30+ = slower return. Most miss Wk 8

Deepak Chona is an Orthopedic Sports Surgeon by day, data-driven injury analyst by night. You can follow more of his insights at @SportMDAnalysis.

📊 Poll of the Day

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